The Study On The Dynamic House Risk Assessment Model For Rainstorm-flood Utilization Multi-agent

Large areas were affected by different flood disasters which have always caused great economic loss every year in China. When facing with the flood disasters, the Chinese government has taken many measures, such as early warning before the flood disaster, emergency rescue during the whole period of the flood disaster and life-rescuing after the flood disaster. Meanwhile, the real-time disaster risk assessment during the whole process of the flood disaster is very important, which has much effect on the emergency rescue measures. For example, dynamic house risk assessment during the whole process of the flood disaster is related to the population risk in or out of the house. What’s more, the dynamic house risk assessment is an important basis for government to make decisions on emergency rescue and to assess the economic loss. Disaster risk presented complexly dynamic during the whole process of flood disaster. Utilizing most of the research methods, we cannot assess the risk dynamically. So, dynamically assessing the house risk would have a very important practical significance.Flood disaster risk assessment system is a typical complex system, with the interaction, mutual influence, and complex correlation of its components. The system consists of hazard environment, hazard factors, hazard effect objects and risk analysis. Multi-agent theory, such as ABM (Agent-based Modeling) and ABS (Agent-based Simulation), is one of the most important theories of the study of complex system. We could apply modeling method on the micro so as to model the complex system on the macro utilization multi-agent theory. More importantly, we could organically combine the existing related achievements with multi-agent theory. Based on the complexity and dynamics of the rainstorm flood house risk assessment system, this paper modeled each component of the complex system based on ABM. The multi-agent system consists of hazard factor agents’alliance, hazard environment agents’ alliance, hazard effect object agents’alliance and risk analysis agents’alliance. Also, each agents’ alliance consists of different kinds of agent. Agent corresponds to the component of system on the micro, and agents’ alliances reflect the four relatively independent parts. The four parts are hazard factor agents’ alliance, hazard environment agents’alliance, hazard effect object agents’alliance and risk analysis agents’alliance respectively. The complex dynamic of the agents and the agents’alliances can be successly used to solve the complex dynamic problems of the rainstorm flood risk.First of all, the BDI model (Belief-Desire-Intention Model) was used to construct the interior structure of each kind of agent. After the construction of the interior structure of each kind of agent, according to the characteristics of the system, the logical process of each kind of agent and the communication mechanism among agents were respectively designed. The logical process of each kind of agent was adopted by BDI logic, which was specifically optimized. The communication mechanism among agents was achieved by KQML. Thirdly, the rules of each kind of agent were designed according to the related knowledge such as geography, hydrology and so forth as well as the characteristics of different agents. After the construction of the rainstorm flood house risk assessment system based on ABM, considering Lushan County, Upper Reaches of Huaihe River as the studied area, the house risk of the whole process of rainstorm flood would be dynamically simulated. Meanwhile, the collected data of the simulation was of visualization and real-time dynamical and quantitative analysis. The simulation results would be analyzed and evaluated for verifying the feasibility of introducing the multi-agent theory into the rainstorm flood house risk dynamic assessment. Moreover, the results would illustrate that the multi-agent theory could be well used to solve the problems of the rainstorm flood risk dynamic assessment. Furthermore, multi-agent theory can be applied to other aspects of study on the flood disaster.