Research On The Safety Of Passenger Ship Route Under The Uncertain Information Environment

The safety of passenger ships has always aroused wide concerns among scientific and management research personnel in transportation field, however, there are still a lot of accidents such as collisions and groundings, which caused significant life and property loss as well as adverse social effects. After analyzing the causes of passenger ship accidents, it was found that unreasonable and insecurity passenger ship route plan would cause the ship is sailing at high risk and easily induced to meet certain conditions for passenger accident. As a result it is really necessary to evaluate the route’s safety, screen high risk factors, and predict vulnerable waters before exploiting a new route. Therefore we can make necessary reasonable adjustments to the new route and put forward some targeted suggestions, to ensure the safety of navigation during passenger ship’s operating process.Passenger ship’s route safety evaluation is a complicated system project, which has many components and a complex hierarchy, hence there are basic deterministic law but also a lot of uncertain variations. Blind number theory is a complex mathematical tool which can express or deal two or more uncertain information and Blind Number Theory provides an effective way to comprehensively handle uncertain information.Based on passenger routes safety research at uncertain information environment, the paper introduces the concept of the unascertained information to the route safety assessment, simplifies the index setting of human and management factors in the safety system and set up a route safety assessment index system, according to the results of similarity sorting by consulting experts under the principle of protecting class, which can highlight the ship type. Employing the improved AHP model which based on rating scale, the limitation caused by using AHP and FAHP weight deciding method can be avoided in a certain extent. Using the combination of unascertained measure function and blind number expression method, the paper has established the unascertained measurement assessing model which is based on blind number theory, figured out the quantitative and qualitative indexes in the assessment index system respectively, identified the route security level of passenger ship accurately and screened the high risk factors of the route effectively. Verifying the rationality of the evaluation results by experiments, the model was proved to have high maneuverability and accuracy, which can be applied to the field of shipping routes security research.The conclusion of this paper can be for the degree of excellence of the evaluation of passenger route to provide theoretical basis and technical support, has the certain reference value, and through the evaluation model to achieve the organic combination of theory and practice.