The Change Of Water Resources From Upper Stream Akesu River And Its Ecoenvironmental & Socioeconomic Impacts On The Downstream Area

Tarim Basin is the steady high-yield and excellent quality cotton production area, the featured fruits and nuts base, the strategic energy base and petrochemical industrial base in our country. For securing orderly sustainable development of the national economy and eco-environment in this region, available supply of water resources must be guaranteed. Akesu River is the only headstream perennially feeding Tarim River,68% of its year-round water volume coming from sary-zhaz and ak-sae in The Republic of Kirghizstan, the water from which downflow into the mainstream Tarim River accounting for 75.6% of the total annual volume in mainstream Tarim River. Therefore, it is strategically significant and realistically important that the water volume changes impact on the eco-environmental and socioeconomic development in the downstream area.This study predicted the agricultural, industrial and domestic water demands in Akesu River Basin and Mainstream Tarim River Area in 2020 and 2030 respectively through analyzing the principal factors that impact the inflow of water resources into Akesu River and their changing dynamics based on the current utilization status of water resources in Akesu River Basin and Mainstream Tarim River Area. The statistically structural analyzing methodology was applied, in the preconditions of that water supply equals to the demand in all the drainage areas of Tarim River, pertinently contraposed the water resources development and utilization plan on the two rivers in Kirghizstan, thus simulated the different water supply options in Tarim River Basin. Hence accordingly estimated the impacts of cross-border water volume change upon the eco-environment and sector-by-sector socioeconomic development in the headstream area and mainstream area in Tarim River Basin.The result showed that the implementation of water resources development and utilization plan in upperstream Akesu River would enormously reduced the inflow into Tarim River, inducing severe shortage of water resources in Akesu River Basin and the mainstream area of Tarim River in Tarim Basin, seasonal dry-out in upperstream, middle and downstream along Mainstream Tarim River, disturbed the ongoing water diversion and allocation mechanism in Akesu River Basin and the mainstream area of Tarim River in Tarim Basin, and consequently impacted the social stability, agricultural and all-sector industrial development in Tarim Basin. Also, the shortage of water resources would significantly destruct the ecosystem in Tarim Basin, resulting the degradation of ecologically important woodland and other vegetations, worsening land desertification and soil salinization, as well as disappearing the endangered stratigicaly significant "Green Corridor", and further restrain the sustainable development of the socioeconomy and eco-environment in Tarim Basin even the entire Xinjiang thus staggering the progress of national westward opening strategy and the construction of "Silk Road Economic Belt" as a whole.