An Evolution Of Development Rules Study Of Architecture Installation Engineering Material Cost

In recent years, the construction projects of our country has increased gradually, many high-rise buildings under construction to be city landmarks. In this case, the cost of construction project has become a matter of great concern. In engineering cost, material costs account for 60%-70%, at the same time, the material costs are especially susceptible to the changes of market demand and the macroeconomic conditions, so the evolution of development rules study of material cost is very important for accurate prediction of engineering cost.The thesis is based on the summary of the composition and calculation methods of material cost in different periods, analyzed the reasons that the material cost changes for the past 30 years, proposed the three economic variables which impact the material cost,respectively studied how did the three economic variables effect the material cost and the causal relationship between them and the material cost. Then it points out the feasibility of material cost to predict by selected exponential smoothing model and multiple regression model. Finally, using these two kinds of models to predict development tendency of the material cost in the future, then compared and optimized these two models. In this entire process has made the following aspects of research:(1) Through the analysis of materials cost changes in recent 30 years,obtained three economic variables which impact the materials cost: GDP, fixed asset investment and prices,selects per capita GDP index, the price index of investment in fixed assets and commodities retail price index expresses as economic variables. Studied their effects on the cost of materials and the way of a causal relationship with the material cost, obtained that the per capita GDP, fixed asset investment and prices are caused by changes of the material cost.(2) According to the characteristics of material costs, constructed the exponential smoothing prediction model which based on material costs. The model uses different smoothing methods to predict material costs, then compared and analyzed the forecast results.The conclusion is that Holter-Winter non-season exponential smoothing model is suitable for the short-term prediction of material cost, and using this model forecasts the future development tendency of the materials cost.(3) The cost of materials is affected by many factors, in order to study the relationship between the materials cost and various factors, established the multivariate regression model.Then tested and analyzed the model.Finally, using the tested model to predict the material cost in the future.(4) Exponential smoothing model and multiple regression model to predict the future development tendency of material cost. Through the comparative analysis, multiple regressionmodel is more accurate than the exponential smoothing prediction model, and with the constant development of China’s socialist market economic system, the forecast of various economic indicators will be more timely and accurate, so the practical value of the model will be fully reflected.