Research Of Scenario Analysis Method For Urban Central Areas Planning Under The Dimensions Of Climate Change

In recent years, as predicted in the comprehensive report by the IntergovernmentalPanel on Climate Change, the influence of the incoming global climate change. Hereinto,as the important main body of tackling climate change, cities do not only have importanteffects on slowing global climate change and reducing greenhouse gas emission, but alsoneed to take active countermeasures to adapt to extreme climate events.Researches on tackling climate change in the field of urban planning has drawn anincreasing attention, but these researches are relatively scattered, mainly includingresearches on slowing climate change and researches on adapting to it, which lack arelatively comprehensive and systematic working method for urban planning formulation.Based on this current situation, through the researches and practices of tackling climatechange in domestic and overseas urban planning, combining the contents of formulatingcentral urban area planning in China, and cross-disciplinarily introducing the scenarioanalysis method, this paper puts forward a set of scenario analysis approach of centralurban area planning under the dimension of climate change to instruct the work offormulating the planning scheme of tackling climate change for central urban areas in ourcountry. This method consists of two main parts: in the first part Formulation of ScenarioPlan, through adopting the scientific prediction method which combines quantitativeanalysis with qualitative analysis, the feasibility research and analysis of tackling climatechange in central urban area is carried out, so as to choose appropriate planning tactics toinstruct the formulation of different scenario plans; in the second part Comparison andSelection of Scenario Plans, through comparing the key indexes of tackling climatechange in multiple contents including urban space form, residential land planning andpublic service facility, the abilities of different scenario plans to tackle climate changeare evaluated to work out the ultimate central urban area planning scheme.The paper hopes to explore the technical method of tackling climate change suitablefor urban planning formulation in our country through the application of the scenarioanalysis approach of central urban area planning under the dimension of climate change,so as to instruct the planning practice of tackling climate change in Chinese cities, thus achieving the goal of slowing urban greenhouse gas emission and enhancing the ability ofcities to adapt to extreme climate events.