| In this paper, system states are simulated by Sequential Monte Carlo Method(SMCM) while clocks are imitated by the Next Event Propulsion Principle(NEPP)after fully taking the operating character of Power Grid into consideration.Considering the single and double system faults, the power flow of system faultstates are calculated by DC-flow method. In order to reduce the unnecessary outagecost(power interruption cost) and obtain more reliability, the Optimal LoadReduction Model(OLRM) is adopted to adjust the generator outputs and henceforthreduce loads. Several typical criteria are also given to evaluate the degree ofreliability. Meanwhile some equivalent treatments for the outrage rate and repairrate of power transmission line, breaker and disconnector are done for thesimplification of analysis and calculation. On the premise that guaranteeing thelargest similarity between simplification model and the actual model, we further dosome operation on load character to reduce calculating Memories and time. Andbearing the non-determinacy of initial data in mind, outrage rate model is built byBlind Number Theory(BNT) which is combined with Sequential Monte CarloMethod(SMCM) to calculated the Blind Number index of reliability estimation. Areliability estimation software based on mentioned methods has been used in a500kV level transmission grid network frame planning in province X. The resultsindicates the feasibility of this model and algorithm which can provide us morecomprehensive information for the Reliability optimization and the power gridplanning, which also can help operating crew make better decision. |
