Research On Reliability Parameter Estimation Of Power System Components Including Wind Farms

Deterministic analysis (N-1Principle) which has been adopted for many years is not enough to maintain a reasonable reliability level of power system, so it is necessary to conduct risk assessment of power systems. However, reliability estimation of power system components is the base of risk assessment, whose credibility directly affects the accuracy of risk assessment. So this paper further researcher on reliability estimation and mainly involves these work:Firstly, this paper analyses the relationship between reliability estimation and risk assessment and respectively describes the classification and definition of reliability estimation. For the shortcomings of the traditional estimation methods, new estimation methods are proposed.And then, this paper starts from traditional components and wind turbines, adopting different methods to estimate reliability. For traditional components, this paper uses the correlation analysis to identify the main factors which affect reliability. Additionally, this paper uses PCA to obtain principal component according to the contribution rate and establish PCR model to estimate reliability. For wind turbine, on the basis of the wind turbine structure’s classification and the statistics of the wind turbine’s failure information, this paper establishes reliability estimation model of wind turbine and uses AHP to calculate the weight of the subsystem in the model in order to obtain the entire wind turbine’s reliability. Besides, this paper takes overhead line and real wind turbine’s failure information for example and respectively uses PCA and AHP to estimate the reliability of unknown component. The results show that the main factors and the wind turbine’s classification are important to the reliability estimation, which has guiding significance for real risk assessment.Finally, this paper puts forward the overall framework of the reliability estimation system and establishes the corresponding database. Besides, this paper designs the interface of the main function, which lays a good foundation for the risk assessment software.