Research On Climate Disasters Considered Outage Models Of Overhead Line

As the most important power grid components on connecting different region, overhead line is an essential part of power facilities. With the continuous development of economy and urbanization, the increasing demand in power transmission, the continuous extension of power grid, the safety and reliability of the system is increasingly getting people’s attention. With a wide range crossing, overhead lines play a role not only in connecting different parts of the substation, power plants and loads, but also in power transmission. Overhead line fault may cause power grid blackouts, make the serious influence on production, living, and even cause great economic losses. So there is important practical significance to study overhead line reliability and raise the safe stability. Setting up reasonable overhead line service model and getting the relliable original parameters accurately, is one of the important work of overhead line reliability research, which also lays the foundation for the whole power system reliability assessment.In recent years, as climate is being abnormal, global climate disasters are becoming more frequent, the direct and indirect economic losses of power system caused by climate disasters are increasing. The overhead line, set up above the ground, exposed to the outside environment, is deepest affected by typhoons, frozen disasters among the power system. Although extreme climate duration is not long, its impact is very bad, with the outage rate increases sharply. If we don’t take into account the outage rate impact which climate disasters have on the overhead line, the evaluation results will be far away from the reality, which will also mislead the power system planning and scheduling stuff. Setting up the outage model of overhead line under climate disaster to get the outage rate is benefit to assess risk of line under the condition of climate disasters.In this paper, the impact of disasters on overhead line outage is analyzed. And typhoon and ice disaster, the two climate disasters, which impact on the overhead line seriously, are chosen to analysis the influence of outage of overhead line and to establish outage model. To obtain the original reliability data, the mathematical analysis and statistical method are used. Statistics need amount of historical statistical data to ensure accuracy, however, as the line fault data on climate disaster types and landform classification statistics is lacked. The accuracy of statistical method can’t be guaranteed. Mathematical analysis needs the study of the relation of climate disasters and overhead line outage, whose process is too complex and theory is strong, makes little practical significance. The fuzzy analysis method is a good choice. Membership function can be used to compare the possible of all the value in fuzzy analysis method. Include expert experience and the field experience of stuff into the model, we can describe climate disasters with fuzzy langue.This paper firstly introduces the purpose and significance of the research, points out the necessity of the model, introduces the current research situation of component outage model under climate disasters and briefly describes the advantages and disadvantages of various modeling. Then, this paper introduces the contents of the fuzzy modeling method in detail:selection of the membership function, rules of fuzzy and inference of fuzzy. This will lay the foundation for overhead line modeling under climatic disasters. Furthermore, the paper analyzes the influence of typhoon and ice disaster on overhead transmission line outage, establishes fuzzy mode according to the outage factor, to get the outage rate affected by typhoon and demonstrate the validity of the model through the example analysis.