Fuzzy Aseismic Reliability And Earthquake Disaster Prediction About Oil Tank

The damage of oil tank always comes with huge economic loss, serious fire, blast and environmental pollution. This make about oil tank an important research in sphere of lifeline earthquake engineering. But there is still lack of research on the mehtods of earthquake disaster prediction about oil tank. In this thesis, based on the fact, band together the important technological item, the earthquake preparedness and disaster reduction programming about Quanzhou, earthquake disaster prediction about oil tank is researched based on the earthquake preparedness and disaster reduction researching about the lifeline earthquake engineering in QuanGang petrochemical industrial park.contrapose the randomicity and fuzzy factor in earthquake disaster prediction about oil tank, an earthquake disaster prediction model is presented based on the probability theory and fuzzy theory. In this model, the parts of oil tank and toft are treated to constitute a system. And the fuzzy aseismic reliability of this system is researched.At first, seismic analysis is made about oil tank. Based on theoretical analysis about the seismic reponse of oil tank and discussion about the simple seismic analysis model, the adaptive aseismic calculation model is chosen for earthquake disaster prediction model presented in thesis. And so get the status equation of various failure modes.Secondly, the author classifies the earthquake disaster about oil tank. The failure criteria and the failure boundary line characteristic value of each earthquake disaster grade are researched. The most important random factors in the earthquake disaster prediction is analyzed, the probabilistic model and statistical characteristic value of the primary random variables are also put forward. In this thesis, a reliability optimum algorithm is put forward based on the JC algorithm. When calculating the system reliability of oil tank, conditional correlation coefficient is used to consider the failure dependence among various failure modes. And so get the estimated reliability value of the system.Thirdly, the author analyzes the fuzzy factors in earhtquake disaster prediction, and mostly discussed the fuzzy factors brought with seismic intensity grade classification, site grade evaluation and earthquake disaster grade classification. And so the fuzzy theory is applied to deal with these fuzzy factous.Finally, with an example of QuanGang petrochemical industrial park, the author systematically analyzes the whole process of earthquake disaster prediction about oil tank, which includes the seismic risk analysis, site grade fuzzy comprehensive evaluation, system reliability calculation and long-term earthquake disaster prediction. Analysis about the example shows that the earthquake disaster prediction modle about oil tank presented in this thesis reflects the earthquake disaster character of oil tank, and compared with the traditional fixed value method, the method put forward in this thesis give more detailed result.