The Index And Application Reaserch On Water Resources Vulnerability In Hexi Corridor

In recent years, human activities and climate change have a very effect on water resources system in china, which result in water resources shortage, water environment pollution, water and soil erosion, drought and flood frequently, and so on, and those demonstrate that water resources system is a strong vulnerability system. In this paper, the theory and application of water resources vulnerability are studied. The main contents and results are as follows:(1) According to whether human society take on adaptive measures, vulnerability is divided into narrow water resource vulnerability (NWRV for short) and generalized water resource vulnerability (GWRV for short).(2) Using the method of "Problem Tree Analysis" to analysis the question of China’s water resources vulnerability; based on the qualitative analysis, we establish the index set of water resource vulnerability by using the pressure-state-response (PSR for short) framework, and use the index of PS and PSR respectively to represent the narrow and general water resources vulnerability; and propose the threshold evaluation method of water resources vulnerability; and using the threshold, the strictest water resources management system and water supply-demand balance theories, we put forward an integrated adaptive management model of water resources vulnerability.(3) Hexi Corrdor region and its Shule, Heihe and Shiyang River Basin that have very serious ecological environmental problems is acted as the case study area. Use the method of "Problem Tree Analysis" to analysis the question of Hexi Corrdor region’s water resources vulnerability, and use cluster centers and AHP to conform the standardized values and index weight.(4) Analyze the fragile degree of the indexes, vulnerability result, the contribution of each index and the threshold of Hexi Corridor region and its three basins from2000to2010. The GWRV of Hexi Corridor and Shule, Heihe and Shiyang River Basin are in severe vulnerability, and their mean values are respectively0.7341,0.6876,0.7092,7653. The line between NWRV and GWRV in Hexi Corridor region shows a parallel variation; GWRV relatively NWRV, its vulnerability has8.86%decline in space in Hexi Corridor region; NWRV stands for the potential vulnerability oof water resource; GWRV stands for the true vulnerability of water resource; GWRV is more representative of the actual degree of vulnerability. The contribution index rate influenced by human factors is about65%, of which water resources development and utilization, Water Consumption for10000RMB GDP, Water Resources Per Capita are the key indicators. Under the ideal of A1model, the lower threshold water resources vulnerability in the Hexi Corridor region is0.2367, which is in slightly fragile; and if it can’t control the development speed, according to the B1mode, the upper limit in the Hexi Corridor region is0.9528, which is in very fragile.(5) Study the adaptive management of water resources vulnerability by using the threshold, the strictest water resources management system, water supply-demand balance and an integrated adaptive management model in2020under the runoff frequency of20%,50%,75%,95%. The results show that, the threshold management model is relatively ideal, and the strictest water resources management system and water supply-demand balance can’t be changed fundamentally the fragile state of water resources in the Hexi Corridor region, and the integrated adaptive management can make the fragile fragile state to reduce the medium fragile, which needs to take measures about reducing the amount of agricultural water use, the total water resource utilization and Water Consumption for10000RMB GDP.This paper has innovations in the following places:the concept of water resources vulnerability and the method of "Problem Tree Analysis", the evaluation indicators set, threshold evaluation methods, the integrated adaptive management, and the series and scene years’evaluation of Hexi Corridor. This paper mainly studies the theory and application of water resources vulnerability, which can provide a decision support for some government departments.