Water Resources Vulnerability Assessment And Adaptive Management In River Basins

With the continuous changes in the global climate,the demand for water resources in human society has been continuously expanding.Water shortages,water pollution,and frequent occurrence of natural disasters have become increasingly serious.The issue of water resources security has caused widespread concern in the society.At present,water resources vulnerability is an important measurement standard to measure the water resources safety status,and adaptive management of water resources is an important method to improve the safety of water resources.The water resources vulnerability evaluation of the river basin evaluates the current water resources vulnerability of the research area and reflects the degree of damage of the water resources.The adaptive management is to improve the water resources security status and optimize the future selection of water resources in the study area.This paper first defines the basin water resources vulnerability and adaptive management based on the existing research and the particularity of river basin water resources,and elaborates the connotation in detail.It also puts forward the research framework of adaptive management of river basins.Secondly,by analyzing the influencing factors of water resources in the basin,the water vulnerability assessment function model was constructed from four aspects of sensitivity,adaptability,exposure and criticality.Thirdly,based on Knight uncertainty theory and prospect theory,the REU model of basin water resources adaptive management was constructed.Finally,taking the Pearl River Basin as an example for empirical analysis,the vulnerability of water resources in the Pearl River Basin was evaluated on a time and space scale.The water vulnerability of the Pearl River Basin from 2001 to 2015 is relatively high,and it is above the moderately vulnerable,which is mainly affected by climate change and natural disasters.The vulnerability of water resources in the Pearl River Basin is unevenly distributed.Guangdong Province has the highest level of vulnerability and is mostly moderately vulnerable;Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region has a low level of vulnerability and more than half is low vulnerable;Yunnan Province has the lowest level of water resource vulnerability and is mostly low vulnerability.Then,under the CMIP5 model,the BCC-CSM1.1 climate model was selected to predict the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 climate scenarios in the Pearl River Valley in 2030.Based on the causes of the basin’s vulnerability and the <Pearl River Basin Water Resources Planning(2012~2030)>,use the REU model to make decisions on 31 water resources management goals.The goal preference under the RCP4.5 scenario is greater than the goal preference under the RCP8.5 scenario.The decision makers prefer the RCP4.5 climate scenario.Control greenhouse emissions to meet the RCP4.5 model requirements.The REU model provides decision-makers with optimal management goals under different funding and technology conditions.Under the conditions of unrestricted funding and technology,the 31 integrated management goals have the highest preference values,the decision makers should implement comprehensive management goal.That is to control the total amount of water used in the river basin,increase the rate of water quality compliance,control the rate of water use in the ecological environment,and increase the capacity for flood control and drought resistance.Under the climate change scenario,this paper provides some reference for water resources vulnerability assessment and adaptive management of the basin.