Research On Forecasting Shijiazhuang Metro Passenger Flow

Shijiazhuang metro will play a backbone role in Shijiazhuang transportationsystem. It will play a guided role in Shijiazhuang urban development. To analyses thepassenger flow objectively and deeply is the foundation to urban rail transit networkplanning, feasibility analysis and transport organization work. While the metroconstruction is costly in both time and money, and the construction will take effect inurban transportation system and after the construction the railway network is difficultto change etc., passenger flow prediction is particularly important.Metro passenger flow forecast can be divided into recent prediction, mid-termprediction and long-term prediction according to the time. All the kinds of thepredictions will have an important impact for network planning and engineeringfeasibility study particularly.As the research object, traffic flow prediction of the new subway is analyzed uponthe present situation and the summarized data of Shijiazhuang, which is related tourban social and economic development situation of information collection andforecasting. Study of passenger flow prediction method determines the adoptionbased on the four-stage method for subway passenger flow forecast. Talks aboutShijiazhuang metro passenger flow forecast with summarizing, analyzing the fourstages of the four-stage method, then select a proper model to forecast Shijiazhuangmetro passenger flow. In subsequent traffic flow forecast work, method model for tripgeneration stage rate method was improved in order to improve the predictionaccuracy and improve the transportation division stage model to improve the predictaccuracy. Predict, calculate and analyses induced passenger flow, points out thatShijiazhuang metro operation strategy can improve the points. Forecast the passengerflow for the first phase of Shijiazhuang metro line3, analysis the prediction procedureand analysis the compositions of the future passenger flow and points out that theinduced passenger flow is important. Analysis and predict the induced-increasingpassenger flow. Study what the impact of the sensibility of the passenger flow for ticket price and departure interval policy and get the optimization scheme.