Research Of Load Forecasting For Natural Gas In Urban Planning And Engineering

It is predicted that natural gas, as the fastest-growing fossil fuel, will becomewidely used in the coming decades. China, as a major momentum in energyconsumption in the world, rapidly develops clean and efficient energy such asnatural gas in order to get rid of the status of coal-intensive industrialization.Natural gas will become an important energy in every city in China.Due to the rapid development of the natural gas market, various provinces andcities in China work actively on the study of planning and feasibility in urban gasengineering. Accurate prediction of Natural Gas Consumption is the key in urbangas planning, because it affects the economic efficiency of gas supply planning andthe safety of gas pipeline network. This paper intends to provide guidance for urbangas planning through related research on load forecasting in urban gas planning andengineering.This paper first presents a survey of load forecasting research in urban gasplanning and engineering both home and abroad, and points out the shortcomings. Acity in North China is used as an example, to study three aspects included the trendof gas users in development, the monthly time series of city gas load and thedistribution of daily uneven factor. Long-term trends and patterns of seasonalchanges in the development of gas users and devices are analyzed, by method ofseasonal time series model. The X-12-ARIMA program is introduced in the analysisof gas monthly load time series, to explain the changes in trends and seasonalcharacteristics, and on that basis a long-term gas load forecasting approach, usingX-11model with temperature correction, is proposed. The distribution of dailyuneven factor is analyzed by mathematical statistics methods, correspondingprobability distribution function is established and some suggestions on peak factorin engineering design are given.On the basis of research findings above and other prediction methods, A loadforecasting software applied in urban gas planning and engineering is developed byhybrid programming using VB.NET and MATALB. The software includes dataanalysis and load forecasting as the main purposes, and combines commonly usedmathematical analysis and prediction model. The software has strong applicability and extensibility, and is of a certain significance to urban gas planning.