The Economic Analysis Of Water Resource Utilization And Ecological Security Of Oasis At Minqin County, Gansu Province

Past and present situation of water resource utilization at Minqin County. Gansu Province, China, was studied. The information used was from the data collected during farm surveys and from the various channels gathered by the authors, which included information on local economic structure, agricultural systems and water resources utilization during the past 60 years. Correlation analysis and principle component analysis on factors leading to environmental deterioration of this county were carried out. Water resources utilization during the past 60 years were modeled and water resources consumption for the period of 2011 to 2050 were predicted. The main results were as the follows:1.Natural factors and social factors played equal roles in environmental degradation in Minqin County. The weight of natural factors in affecting the changes of environments was-0.857, and the corresponding weight of socio economics factors was 0.857. Population and agricultural systems were two main factors in the group of socio economics factors, the weight of those two factors were 0.913 and 0.913, respectively.2.Cropping sector consumed more water than any other economic sectors. During the period of 1949 to 2008 the mean annual amount of water consumed by Minqin County was 4.06×108m3, of which 2.73×108m3 water was drilled and pumped from groundwater. The amount of water consumed by each sector as the percentage of the total amount of water consumption in the County was 87.11% for crop production, 2.94%, for lovestock production,4.19%, for the second and third industrial production, 4.35% for ecological conservation, and only 1.41% for domestic daily life.3.The farming systems were not matched with local natural resources. The ratio of output and input for cropping, forest and livestock production was 2,1 and 3, respectively. Crop production has the character of consumed more water but produced less output. The ratio of output and input for livestock sector was much higher than cropping and forestry, however, its commodity rate was too low. Livestock production system should be iproved with the objectives of increasing marketing rates so that water use efficiency will be increased. Comparing the net income and total water consumption cash crops (cotton, black melon seeds, vegetable) and livestock production are encouraged for the future development.4. Population control and improvement of the farming systems are important ways to improve the ecological environments. It has been predicted that the population of Minqin County will arrive at its peak in 2020, about 33×104, and the corresponding annual water requirements will be 4.706×108m3. The percentage of water consumption for each sector as predicted is 53.33%,for crop production,33.573% for the second and third industry, which indicated that the rate of industry development was too high and should slow it down. Virtual water trade and grassland farming systems are the effective means to overcome thecurrent social,economical and ecological problems in Minqin County.