Research On The Regional Low Carbon Scenario Analysis And Macro-economic Impacts Based On MAC And IO Models In China

China is the second largest economy and also is a high carbon-emitting country. Its economy has kept a strong growth in the past decades. With the economic growth, China is under the great pressure from energy consumption and carbon emissions reduction. It has become an urgent that China has to achieve the low carbon development by improving the energy efficiency and promoting the industrial upgrading.This study aims at the regional low carbon development in China. To make up the problem that researches barely focus on the technologies to push the industrial improvement and lack of macroeconomic impacts, this research construct a bond method of MAC and extended IO models. This study chooses some high energy intensive sectors, identify key mitigation technologies in each sector and evaluate their major mitigation potentials and costs. The objective is to establish around methods for regional low carbon development in China via exploring each sector’s mitigation roadmap and macroeconomic impacts analysis.This research takes the Shandong province as a case study. The results show that low-cost technologies will contribute 71.3% of total mitigation potentials. These technologies play a significant role in mitigating emissions of energy intensive sectors, for example nuclear power, CCPP, blended cement, and small internal combustion engine technology are the technologies with the largest mitigation potentials respectively in electricity generation, iron and steel, cement and transportation. Besides, the macroeconomic impact analysis shows that the CO2 emission reduction action will have a negative effects on the macroeconomic, but can be mitigated by technological adjustment.By the case study, it is proved that the method this study established is effective to research on the regional low carbon development.