The Air Quality Forecast Of The Central City Region Of Yu’Xi Based On GIS

In recent years, air pollution caused by the rapid economic development, population growth and industrial expansion is getting more serious and thus threaten public health and safety, as well as sustainable development of national economy. Yu’Xi is an important junction for Yunnan economic development, air quality simulation is an important way to analyze Yu’Xi air pollution formation characteristics, and to conduct the research of pollution control strategy setup. Developing an emission inventory of air pollutants in this region not only provides the necessary data for improving air quality, but also has an impact on scientific development of other cities. In this study, based on the lack of Yuxi local air pollution inventory, the Yuxi industrial sources, PM2.5 flow source and point source emissions, PM10, SO2, NO2, CO, VOCs and O3 first established emission inventory; on the basis of a large number of industrial enterprises monitoring data in Yuxi City, SO2, NO2 and PM10 emission factors were calculated local and comparative analysis, reduced that SO2, NO2 and PM10 emission sources inventory uncertainty.Emission inventory is the most important input data for the air quality model, and it plays an important role on understanding the air pollution and precicting the pollution trend in the future. Considering the deficiency of the Central City Region of Yu’Xi emission inventories,this study used the newly developed local or domestic emission factors, supported by a large amount of activity data from local emission sources, to develop a 2014-based the Central City Region of Yu’Xi emission inventory including the industrial sources, moving sources and areal sources.the results show that the total emission of PM2.5, PM10, SO2, NO2, CO, VOCs and O3 in the Central City Region of Yu’Xi for the year 2014 are about 1553 t,9530 t,15207 t,29635.68 t,40222.56 t, 31112 t,76.9 t, respectively. Industrial sources share the largest contribution of PM10, SO2, NO2 and CO accounting for 61.53%,87.52%,60.82% and 40.73% of total emission, respectively. Area sources are the largest categories for PM2.5 and VOCs accounting for 41.27% and 63.24% of total emission, respectively.We simulated and predicted the air quality on Central City Region of Yu’Xi using Air quality prediction model-AERMOD, on the basis of the investigation and the study on the Central City Region of Yu’Xi emission inventories. In August 2104 to July 2015 as a preliminary validation study was conducted, we simulated the air quality on Central City Region of Yu’Xi. AERMOD prediction results and the monitoring data use the results contrast, model predicted results of quantitative analysis and spatial analysis, concluded that:(1)The SO? concentration prediction of YuXi NO.1 High School station was slightly on the high side and dongfeng reservoir station predicted slightly low, the rest of the site prediction is consistent with the monitoring value trend.the NO2 concentration predicted that except dongfeng reservoir station and YuXi NO.1 High School station were below the monitoring value,the rest of the site are similar with the results of monitoring value trend;the PM10 concentration predicted that except dayingjie station was exceed the monitoring value, the rest of the site were below the monitoring value.(2)Model predictions results were analyzed using quantitative forecasting model predictions and experimental results to evaluate the mean average of the representative of the overall predictive value of deviation,the predicted value is 1 without any deviation, forecasting simulation results show AERMOD for three pollutants credibility was SO2> NO2> PM10.(3)the results can be seen from the comparison of spatial distribution of prediction results and monitoring stations data interpolation, we predicted that the higher concentration and lower concentration of SO2, NO2 and PM10 in good agreement.On the basis of the use local emission inventories with the AERMOD air quality model ofthe Central City Region of Yu’Xi from February 2015 to July 2015 period, we predicted that only SO2 and NO2 is only slightly exceeded.