Household Carbon Emissions Research Based On System Dynamics

Carbon dioxide is the main cause of global climate change. With the expansion of population, the speeding up of urbanization and the improvement of living standards, the household energy consumption is soaring. The increasing carbon emission causes serious influence to the environment. The contraction between population, economy and environment is been more prominent for the restriction of the carbon emission. Thus, under the environmental pressure, making some references for the control of the carbon emission by simulation can alleviate the contraction between "development" and "reduction" in China.The paper constructed a model of household carbon emissions in China by system dynamics from the aspects of society, economy and environment. And then we predicted the situation of the next 5 years in 3 development scenarios:maintaining, planning and policy-making scenarios. The studies show that the considering factors like geographic environment, economic development and population can make an impact on household carbon emission. Among them, the geographical environment is the most important factor of carbon emission. Comparing three kinds of development situation, change under various scenarios of Liaoning province was the largest, Guangdong to the quick response of the science and technology progress, the rest of the provinces in any scenario basically remained unchanged. According to the results of simulation models, combined with China’s specific conditions, we provided constructive suggestions to reduce emission.