| The Yibin section of Jinsha River flows through the area was regarded as the research object,Having been investigated and collected flows through the area of social and economic background and the related industrial policy information, existing life, agricultural and industrial pollution sources and pollutants discharged in to the Jinsha River of the distribution of the species and discharge amount,The distribution of the species and discharge amount from the Jinsha River was evaluated by using equivalent standard pollutant burden.By using Jinsha River’s water quality routine monitoring data with 2006-2010 years, Yibin section of Jinsha River’s pollution factor dynamic clustering figure have been done, The best classification pollution factor affecting the water quality of Jinsha River was to calculate through the F value method, in determining the pollution factor assessment of water environmental quality of surface water and using fuzzy comprehensive evaluation to evaluate. The mathematical model of the Jinsha River in Yibin section of 2000-2020 pollution-creating sources from life, agriculture and industry with quantity of water, the quantity of waste flow and emissions was established and was calculated,predicted.Mathematical model was established to predict the Jinsha River in Yibin section of 2000-2020 years from the immigration-outlet section’s pollution factor’s concentration value with runoff volume of 116 billion m3 and 194 billion m3. Based on the investigation or prediction, the control strategy was proposed.The results show that:The main pollution in Yibin section of Jinsha River was organic pollution; Management was the most important factor in changes of various pollution-creation sources’emissions.The influencing Yibin section of Jinsha River water environmental quality of the pollution factor had four categories:water temperature,dissolved oxygen,permanganate index:,ammonia nitrogen,total phosphorus,copper and fluoride as a class; mercury as a class; arsenic as a class; pH, BOD5, petroleum, volatile phenol, lead, zinc, selenium, cadmium, hexavalent chromium, cyanide, anionic surfactant, sulfide, fecal coliformas a class.It was the same level that the role of the each category played at water, except for ammoniacal nitrogen, the other kinds of pollution factors in dry’s, flat’s, wet’s period was no significant difference, the immigration-outlet section’s pollution factors of interannual variation of the same water level period was no significant difference;But in flat water period, ammoniacal nitrogen from the immigration-outlet section of interannual was obvious changed.The total phosphorus, fecal coliform bacteria of An’bian and Shimenzi section had exceeded GB 3838-2002 class III water standard.Played a decisive role to the quality of pollution factor was the total phosphorus and fecal coliform. The water quality of Jinsha River could reach the GB 3838-2002 class III water standard except the total phosphorus and fecal coliform bacteria.Predictions indicated that the pollution-creating sources from lives,agricultural and industrial total phosphorus were 37521kg,163.1kg and 203001kg; the total nitrogen from lives,industrial and agricultural sources were 392240kg,8508kg and 2477609kg. In the Jinsha River runoff volume was 194 billion m3 and 116 billion m3,the same section of every pollution factor’s concentration value was no significant difference in dry’s, flat’s, wet’s period, they were at the same level.In addition to the total phosphorus, calculated and predicted the pollution factor’s in 2015 and 2020 all reached GB 3838-2002 class II water standard.To study and control of the eutrophication of water body is the main problem facing in current and even to the "Twelfth Five-Year Plan".Under the existing management and measures, closely monitor the total nitrogen and total phosphorus of water, cut from the source of phosphorus and nitrogen, would be guarantee the economic development, realize to coordinate development of economy and environment. |
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