Drift Forecasting Model And Risk Assessment Of Bohai Sunken And Submerged Oil

The mechanism of sunken and submerged oil has always been the focus of research at home and abroad. Unknown source oil landed in the Bohai Sea is a new problem encountered in the maritime supervision and management of pollution prevention. Sometimes no oil spill accident is occurred ashore when unknown oil is founded; so it may be that the spill accident is happened in the past and the oil drive, and floating and ran aground due to shore when meet appropriate environmental conditions.Sunken and submerged oil not only seriously affected the economic development of coastal tourism and aquaculture, and caused bad influence to the society. In this study, through literature search and analysis, a summary of the characteristics of sunken and submerged oil, weathering mechanism, transport drift rules is got; a three-dimensional oil drift prediction model was established, and by building Bohai sunken and submerged oil pollution risk management information system, the Bohai Sea sunken and submerged oil risk is assessed. The main work of this paper is as follows:(1) According to the oil composition analysis, weathering kinetics study, indoor experiment and outdoor simulation research, field sampling survey, a technical route for the study of submerging feature is designed, respectively from both natural and anthropogenic influence. Combined with the characteristics of the oil, the effects of evaporation and temperature on the density, the emulsification and dispersion effects are studied. The mixing process of mixing, separation, floatation, and so on, is studied comprehensively.(2) Bohai sunken and submerged oil three-dimensional drift prediction model is established. In the model, the three-dimensional flow field, sea surface wind field is provided by Bohai sea power module. Based on driven transport of sunken and submerged oil, the simulation and prediction of the process of oil spill in the sea drift diffusion and weathering processes, water suspension transport and sedimentation is got. When applied the model to simulate a spill accident of Tianjin area, the results are consistent with related investigation reports, show the accuracy and applicability of the model. Also it can provide theoretical support to the prediction of the Bohai Sea sunken and submerged oil drift.(3) Comprehensive application of Visual C++ and component GIS technology, the Bohai Sea sunken and submerged oil risk management information system OILGIS is developed. Its functions include the electronic chart display platform, sunken and submerged oil drift prediction, oil spill trajectory back calculation and other functions. The system is used to evaluate the pollution risk of the Bohai Sea sunken and submerged oil. Results show that the function is practical. Through the graphical expression, high risk of spilled oil source area and affected areas is displayed intuitively. It is an important technical tool as Bohai sunken and submerged oil risk management system and accident emergency decision supporting.