Study On Land-based Sources Of Marine Pollution Control Based On System Dynamics

In recent years, marine economy has become a new field and the new trend of global economic development. With the strategic position of our oceans becoming more and more important, the exploration of the sea is becoming more and more in-depth. When marine provides a steady stream of resource development to human, the human activities, especially in the coastal ocean, give instability factors to the sustainable development of ocean. The land-based sources of pollution have become a major source of marine pollution in all sources. According to the calendar year statistics.80% of marine pollutants come from land-based sources of pollution, so the control and reduce the amount of land-based sources of pollutants discharged into the sea become a top priority.Based on the total amount of pollutants discharged into the sea on the basis of control of land-based sources, it establishes land-based pollution of marine simulation systems, introduces system dynamics theory and game theory to establish the total amount of land-based sources of marine pollution control system simulation model. Finally, it is the initial realization forecast of land-based sources of marine pollution "emissions-control "system simulation and control decisions. Model first analyzes all the factors involved in the reality of land-based pollutants discharged into the sea processes, then draw causal diagrams and system flow chart according to a causal relationship between the elements, and converts to the input-output relationship which is model required. Simulation model predicts the simulation run primarily from 2005-2025, through continuous commissioning parameters and comparing with the original model of development, forms an effective control land-based sources of marine pollution status of the optimal solution. In the "discharge" system of control measures, mainly through the game model and source of regulatory control strategy, it details emission standards, increases incentives and makes the main body of the sewage to be fully integrated into the total amount of land-based sources of pollution and protection of the marine environment ranks objectively.By constructing the analysis of the total land-based sources of marine pollution control model and game model, this paper for land-based sources of marine pollution control decision research ideas and conclusions are as follows:(1) First of all. it should analyze the current situation of marine pollution, summarizes the land-based sources of pollution are the main sources of marine pollution, propose research significance, then introduce the system dynamics theory, expound the theory feasibility in the marine environmental protection. From economic theory, it can clear land-based sources of marine sewage main regulatory body and game strategy, and review the use of game theory in terms of environmental protection.(2) Secondly, the main use of system dynamics modeling idea and marine land-based sources of pollution reality system is to establish a connection. The main use of system dynamics Vensim PLE software is to drawr land-based pollution of the marine simulation systems running paths, the basic idea is:modeling idea-causal diagram-system flow chart-formula-parameter determines-parameter sensitivity testing-model performance testing-model debugging and program design. After setting up a successful model, for the marine industry output, land industrial output. GDP, the total amount of land-based sources of wastewater discharged into the sea. the model can give a visual prediction map. The ultimate aim is to form the feasibility program with adjusting the parameters, according to the front and rear of the total impact of land-based sources of wastewater discharge into the sea.(3) With introducing the game theory to the "control" subsystem, it can optimize the behavior between the sea and land-based sources of pollution sewage main regulatory body、between the sewage main from an economic point of view, and achieve effective control of land-based sources of marine pollution. After improving the game model it can draw that:environmental regulatory incentives should be introduced, the implementation of reward and punishment should be put into practice. The companies should not be in a passive position, they should take full account of the social production levels to adjust their production, the costs of pollution of the marine environment should be shared by all companies; at the same time, regulatory authorities should set specific emission standards, give the amount of the floating range of rewards and punishments, this behavior can encourage enterprises to actively engage in technology improvement、clean production and enhance the enthusiasm of pollution.