Research On Several Problems In Emergency Plans Evaluation

The most effective way of emergency plans evaluating is to evaluate through the exercise in the accident. As it can not guarantee to handle emergencies effective and the cost of the exercise is high. Therefore, evaluating the emergency plan before emergencies occurring is more reasonable. Currently, many emergency plans have been developed in order to respond to emergencies. But the advantages and disadvantages, operability and completeness of preestablished emergency contingency plan can not be determined. Therefore, the urgently issue is to assess the emergency contingency plans rapid and effective. Therefore, the evaluation theory and fuzzy mathematics are applied in the thesis. And analytical methods, theoretical studies, mathematical modeling methods are used to study a number of problems existed in the assessment. The following aspects of emergency plans evaluating problems are studied in the thesis.(1) After considering the interaction between assessing indicators and the objectivity of index weight calculation in the evaluation process, the subjective and objective comprehensive evaluation method combined of ANP and Entropy is proposed. Firstly, the subjective weight of emergency plans is determined by ANP. After that, the objectively weight of emergency plans is determined by Entropy. Finally, the subjective and objective integrated weight of emergency plan is determined by combining the two methods. And determining the optimal contingency plans through the sorting of emergency plan comprehensive weight.(2) After considering the fuzziness of operational evaluate indicators, the hierarchical fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method is used to evaluate the operability of emergency plans and given the evaluating procedure. And the merits of contingency plans are determined through taking the sort of comprehensive weights in contingency plans.(3) Considering the completeness of contingency plans is the key to ensure the quality of contingency plans. The evaluation of the completeness in contingency plans is studied in the thesis. As the completeness of emergency plans is complexity calculating by the fault tree analysis method and Bayesian networks can be transformed from the fault trees, the completeness of emergency plans is evaluated by Bayesian network analysis method. And the criteria Bayesian network of comprehensive assessment is building. As well as giving the solution steps.The studies on the thesis have the practical significance on improving evaluating methods of emergency plans, improving the disposal efficiency of emergency plans.