| In this world, the water will make life, so water is the source of life, and rainfall is also the world’s water resources. It is an important supply channels, in recent years, drought brought huge losses to the world, so an accurate understanding of the spatial and temporal variations of rainfall is very important, It can give people water resources management. It also provides an important reference.This paper in Baoshan City, Yunnan Province, the rainfall observation station historical rainfall data as experimental data, establish rainfall series of temporal and spatial distribution patterns, spatial and temporal rainfall distribution is divided into two aspects, which is time and space:in terms of time, this paper according to January to December 2012 daily rainfall data on rainfall in the city were analyzed. Firstly, Setting Longyang District, Baoshan City as an example. Analysis of rainfall in different seasons characteristics, and the use of a combination of qualitative and quantitative methods, considering the influence of temperature on rainfall; secondly, respectively, using the two parameter gamma distribution and log normal distribution fitting Baoshan City in 1981-2012 rainfall distribution, and introduce the a new coefficient to represent the probability of no rainfall, by testing the Kolmogorov Smirnov, distribution fitting was used to verify the accuracy and reliability. In space, on the city’s rainfall observation station monthly average rainfall data spatial autocorrelation to explore, understand the city’s rainfall accumulation characteristics, and through the normal QQ distribution, trend analysis, exploring the 1981-2012 average monthly rainfall data for research. Finally, the use of a variety of spatial interpolation method, according to the forecast accuracy of choosing the most appropriate model to analyze the city’s spatial rainfall distribution. The main draw the following conclusions:in 2012-2014, Baoshan city appeared in the spring drought, summer drought and winter drought phenomenon, and by combining qualitative and quantitative methods of temperature and precipitation in Baoshan there is a linear relationship between the two fitting parameters, through the distribution of the results of the comparison, the gamma distribution can be part of the monthly rainfall distribution fitting the lognormal distribution can fit the monthly rainfall distribution accurately, display accuracy evaluation model of various surface interpolation model, ordinary Kriging method can be generated more clearly describe the local details, the distribution characteristics of the rainfall, the border from the outside to the inland rainfall decreased gradually to the direction of Tengchong Longling is more rainfall Longyang District, Shidian County, belongs to the precipitation less.Creating monthly average rainfall probability map, using Arcgis to develop drought early warning, helping the government department provide effective reference. |
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