Employment Problem Reaserch In China Based On Principal Component Analysis And Time Series Forecast

In this paper， urban and rural employment of each rejoin in2010are analyzed by themethod of the principal component analysis， using SAS software.For urban employment，it isanalyzed that Guangdong， Shandong， Zhejiang， Jiangsu and other populous province havelarger numbers，and Qinghai， Ningxia， Tibet and other remote western regions have fewer.Forrural employment，it is found that Jiangsu， Shandong， Zhejiang， Guangdong have higherlevels， and Ningxia， Qinghai， Hainan， Tibet have lower levels.Obviously it is consistentbetween urban and rural areas in the distribution of employment.However，we continue to dealwith national urban and rural employment data in1990-2010by time series analysis，.It isshowed that the overall trend of China’s urban employment has been increasing， while the ruralemployment has been decreased after increasing short-term. Urban employment will continue toincrease， while the rural emplyment will continue to reduce by the time series forecast in2011-2015. This is basically consistent with our basic demographic situation and the urban andrural economic development situation.Urban employment has a good trend， and employmentdevelopment in rural areas has great potential.This provides certain basis for the decision-makersof our country in the future to formulate employment policies and co-ordinate urban and ruralemployment patterns.This paper is divided into five parts:Chapter1: introduction. This chapter focuses on the method， the implementation tool ofthis method and the actual background of the article.Chapter2: basic data and prior knowledge. This chapter describes the data sources， thestatistical analysis methods and the theoretical knowledge of forecast method.Chapter3: principal component analysis. This chapter aims at the principal componentanalysis of urban and rural employment data with SAS in2010.Chapter4: time series prediction. This chapter introduces the short-term forecast by timeseries forecast of urban and rural employment data with SAS in1990-2010.Chapter5: the analysis and summary of the result. This chapter analyzes the results of theprincipal component analysis and time series prediction and draws some conclusions of practicalsignificance for research work.