The Research On The Rational Default Risk Of Our Commercial Bank’s Personal House Credit

The personal house credit business, with low risk and high income, has become the commercial banks’ strategic choice to adjust the credit structure, optimize the property quality and enhance the profit ability. It is one of key services which our country commercial banks have developed in recent years, and presents the characteristics about rapid growth service and severe competition. Actually, after five or six years’ quickly development, the potential accumulated risks in the personal house credit business may not be allowed to neglect. Because our country is lying in the rising stage of the housing prosperity at present, these risks are not reflected temporarily. Once the housing price appears the inflexion point, these potential accumulated risks may break’ out apparently and will impact on the financial system.Based on the analysis of the personal house credit business at home and abroad, this dissertation analyzes the main risks of the personal house credit business. The risks of the personal house credit business consist of operational risk and credit risk. The operational risk can be controlled by improving the quality of the employees and establishing a sound corporate governance structure and sound inner control mechanism of credit risk; the credit risk includes the forced to default risk, rational default risk and malicious default risk. Because the personal house credit business is a secured loan business, the bank’s loss which is caused by the forced to default risk and malicious default risk can be compensated through the income of the collateral-property auctioned. For the personal house credit business, the rational default risk may be the main risk for banks to cause substantial loss. But we found that it can not be analyzed and assessed separately on rational default risk. Firstly, by analyzing the probability of the rational default risk, we found it is closely related to changes in housing price. Secondly, we try to explore the changes of the housing price, and the relationship between housing price index and probability of rational default risk. Finnally, we give some suggestions for commercial banks to control rational default risk after analyzing and assessing the personal house credit business’ deep-rooted problems.