| Comprehensive, sustainable development is the objective and the relentless pursuit of allover the countries and human being. Sustainable development of economy, energy and environment is a critical and indispensable part of sustainable development. Economic development depends heavily on the support of energy and environment, economic development and energy use can produce serious environmental problems, while energy shortages and environmental deterioration restrict the further and sound development of economy. So the realization of coordinated and sustainable development of economy-energy-environment (3E) system is the key to the process of the comprehensive, sustainable development to a great extent. For this reason this study selects the Gansu Province which is characterized by backward economy, outstanding poverty issues, vulnerable ecology and serious environmental problems as the research area and object, carries out the work in the following aspects and draws the corresponding conclusions by using relevant statistical data in1985-2011.(1) The correlative degree (RD) between the industrial pollutants emissions (IPE) and energy consumption is investigated based on Grey Relational Model. The results show that there is a high RD between IPE and coal and electric power consumption, but a relatively small RD between IPE and oil and natural gas consumption.(2) Using the EKC hypothesis model, the pollution-income relationship (PIR) is analyzed. The PIR varies depending on contaminations, industrial waste gas, SO2emissions and income keep changes in the same direction in general, while industrial waste water, solid waste and dust (soot) emissions overall decline. The PIR fails to reflect the EKC phenomenon in Gansu.(3) The contributions of population, income and pollutant emission intensity on environmental pressure (EP) change are calculated with the aid of complete structure decomposition analysis method. Population and economic growth both can aggravate the EP, but population’s effects gradually weaken. While technology advancements can help to mitigate the EP.(4) The energy consumption-economic growth nexus is analyzed based on co-integration and Granger causality test model. There exists a unidirectional causality running from economic growth (EG) to energy consumption (EC), namely, EG is the Granger cause of EC, but EC is not the Granger cause of EG.(5) The contributions of structural effects and technical effects on energy intensity (EI) change are measured by using structure decomposition analysis method. The continuous decline in El mainly due to the improvement of energy efficiency (EE), and the effect of economic structure adjustment is relatively low. From1985to2011, the cumulative contributions of efficiency share and structure share were106.42%,-6.42%respectively, the cumulative contributions of efficiency share in the secondary and tertiary industry were71.63%,34.81%respectively. The improvement of EE in the tertiary industry plays a more and more significant role in promoting El reduction. While the structure share and efficiency share of the primary industry have a weaker effect on El change.(6) The comprehensive development index system of3E system in Gansu is constructed and the comprehensive development levels (CDL) of3E are calculated with the aid of principal component analysis and entropy methods. In general, the CDL of economy, energy and environment show an upward trend, but there are greater fluctuations. The CDL depends on the combined effects of the gross level, structural level and quality level, and the contributions of gross, structural and quality levels on CDL of3E are different in different time periods.(7) On the basis of (6), using regression analysis-based multi-system coordination degree model to evaluate the coordination development level of3E system in Gansu. The results show that the coordinated degree of3E system and any two sub-systems in3E system are low on the whole, and present greater volatility and poor stability. In3E system, as long as the development level of any one sub-system is inconsistent and can’t match with that of the other two, the coordinated degree of3E system will remain a low level. Only when the development levels of the three sub-systems are all high and coincide and match with each other, or the development levels of the three improve at the same time and the growth rates of the three are consistent, the coordinated degree of3E system will enhance and keep a high level. |
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