The Research Of Influencing Factors Of Dafault For Commercial Bank’s Personal Loans Defaults

With the continuous development of financial market and the steadily promotion of interest rate liberalization, the competition among commercial banks is more and more intense. Many commercial banks through the development of retail bank to response this shock, and personal fiduciary loans has become to win the competitive advantage the sharp weapon. At the same time, the risk of personal fiduciary loans can not be ignored, how to distinguish influencing factors of default have been paid more and more attention.This crticle first reviews the research status at home and abroad, and compares the products of major personal fiduciary loans at home. Because of complexity of defaut, we define the default as principal or interest has been behind in payment more than60days. In this paper, we select a regional commercial bank in yangtze river delta-bank of Nanjing as sample, and select income, age, education, vocation, region, purpose, amount, time as anaylsis variables and use some rules to quantify them. We adopt logistic regression method to estimate parameters.We find that the factors of income, education, vocation, amout have a significant effect on default of personal fiduciary loans. Unlike the general impression, a negative relation between of amout and the probilty of default, it means that the lager amout of loan, the lower default probility of loan. On the basis of regression, we propose the policy recommendations of how to decrese the risk of default for commercial bank.