Research On Influencing Factors Of Corporate Default Loan

Against the background of deepening supply-side reform and increasingly stringent fi-nancial regulation,China’s economic growth is gradually slowing down,various structural contradictions in the real economy are prominent,and the complexity of credit risk manage-ment and control in the banking industry is rising.According to statistics from the China banking regulatory commission,by the end of 2018,China’s commercial Banks had a non-performing loan balance of 2 trillion yuan,with a non-performing loan ratio of 1.83%.The outstanding balance of concern loans was 3.4 trillion yuan,and the ratio of concern loans to non-performing loans was 3.16%.The ratio of loans 90 days or more overdue to non-performing loans was 92.8%.In 2018,commercial Banks wrote off a total of 988 billion yuan of non-performing loans,259 billion yuan more than the previous year.The write-off of non-performing loans erodes the profits of Banks and continuously compresses their profit margins,which seriously affects the safety,profitability and competitiveness of commercial Banks and threatens the stability and healthy operation of the financial system.Therefore,it is urgent and necessary to strengthen the disposal of non-performing loans in commercial Banks and pre-vent and defuse systemic financial risks.This paper makes a comprehensive use of theoretical and empirical analysis.First,this article takes corporate loans as the research object by comparing domestic and foreign schol-ars about influencing factors of non-performing loans,corporate and personal loans,then se-lect loan data from 2008 to 2017 of a state-controlled banks branch as sample,by establishing the Logistic model,find the relationship between corporate defaults and the corporate credit characteristics.This paper further investigates the general classification of default,namely suspicious in five categories,subprime losses and increase of overdue deterioration on the ba-sis of the loan;Empirical analysis is made on the relationship between the deterioration of overdue loans and corporate credit characteristics.In addition,by analyzing series manners of converting overdue loan,such as extension,adjustment of repayment plan,asset restructuring or transformation of loan subjects,etc.,the credit asset quality authenticity of the branch was probed.On this basis,the policy suggestions for improving the quality of credit assets were put forward from credit guarantee,industry structure,corporate ownership,enterprise scale,credit varieties to optimize the quality of credit assets,and provides reference experience for improving the management ability of non-performing loans for commercial Banks,as well as some meaningful clues and approaches for solving the problems faced by Banks serving pri-vate enterprises and developing inclusive finance.