Study On Equilibrium Exchange Rate Post-crisis Era

In recent years, with the improvement of China’s international status, the RMBexchange rate gradually becomes the focus of the world. Due to historical reasons, ourcountry has accumulated huge foreign exchange reserves, which makes the European andAmerican countries think China benefit from unfair competition of holding down the RMBexchange rate. In2007the outbreak of the subprime crisis has aggravate global economicrecession, as a way to revive the economy, Europe and the United States have devaluedtheir currency in order to expand exports and increase their income. In order to make moreprofit from the trade, the European and American countries further requirement for theappreciation of RMB. In the post-crisis era, the international community’s comments onthe undervalued RMB is still going on, they urge RMB exchange rate become morerational. China adheres to an independent currency policy, committing to improve thesystem of exchange rate continuously, and wish to establish a more market-orientedexchange rate mechanism. China Deny the so-called western speech of the unfair RMBexchange rate. So in the face of the debate between china and abroad, whether the RMBexchange rate is equilibrate or not? Is there a man-made control of exchange rate? Thisarticle will study these problems, discussing RMB equilibrium exchange rate in thepost-crisis era, and to make our own judgments on the international debate of the RMBexchange rate.This paper starts from the characteristics of the post-crisis era, and analyze theinternational economic situation and the world`s attitude to the issue of RMB exchangerate, as a token of the characteristics of the international environment in post-crisis era.Secondly we use statistical analysis method to analyze our country`s currency movements.Then comparing the theory of international equilibrium exchange rate model, and choosethe most suitable model for the situation of our country’s exchange rate. With the help ofthe relevant domestic scholars research works, we using the econometric model to analyzeour real exchange rate by using the quarterly data from2005to2013, and getting theequilibrium real exchange rate. Then we use the equilibrium real exchange rate and the realexchange rate to analyze the Currency misalignment in our country. Found that in thepost-crisis era, the exchange rate before2013is underestimated, but the degree is small,not in conformity with international estimates, and after2013the RMB exchange rate wasovervalued. In the end, the paper points out Suggestions to the current exchange rateregime.