| Since the era had entered the21th century, China’s economy had grown quickly which is mainly powered by investment. The globe marvels at Chinese growth legend. However, this kind of growth is companied by the sluggish up-date progress of residents’consumption structure and the skyrocket of saving. In the ten years of2002to2011,the annual average change rate is merely0.39,which is far below the number of1.18between1992-2001,while saving rate had increased from37.9%to52.6%.This phenomenon is named "Chinese saving puzzle". On one hand, the structural unbalance of consumption and investment sets wooden horse in economy; on the other hand, the sluggish up-date progress of residents’ consumption structure goes against the improvement of civilian enterprise.Residents’consumption can be divided into two parts:one part is spent in food, cloth and dwell, which is used for basic survival; the other part is developmental consumption which can satisfy mental need and elevate human resources intelligence stock so as to secure individual’s development in the future. The increase proportion of developmental consumption means the improvement of residents’consumption structure and living level. This indicator is a vital accordance for regarding policy made. Especially in the current background of haunting haze for financial crisis and the lack of domestic demand, to search the characteristic of developmental consumption and hold the implicit law are beneficial to the formulation of policy which is oriented to industry structure up-date and enlargement of domestic demand.China is undergoing a economic system reform, domestic residents are encountered with the uncertainty caused by all kinds of regulation reform. In this special background, it is necessary to research the cause for developmental consumption bogged down. This paper uses reference of precautionary saving theory, researches the precautionary saving directed in developmental consumption, and intend to search causes above.This paper consists in five parts:the first part is introduction, which chiefly introduces the reason for theme selection and significance.This portrays the frame of the paper. The second part is literature summarization, folding along two clues. The first clue introduces the meaning and assumption of precautionary saving, as well as mainstream models. The second clue starts from mental account theory, incorporated different demand elasticity and based on regarding literature，reveals the mechanism of pull-out effect which involves how survival consumption influence developmental consumption. This part is aimed at the preparation of theoretical base for the following parts. The third part is a description for current state of developmental consumption.The first chapter focuses on the statistical analysis for developmental consumption, by the horizontal and vertical comparison, so as to reveal the characteristics of the consumption structure of urban residents. And then analyze the unbalanced development between the area consumption by Gini coefficient of different types of consumption expenditure. The fourth part is the theoretical model construction. Developmental consumption and survival consumption are entered into dual variables CRRA utility function, so Euler equation is derived, as well as theoretical model of double sources of risk, and revaluate the relative risk aversion and prudent coefficient estimates, while explaining the mechanism of the pull-out effect that is based on theoretical model. The fifth part is empirical analysis. By constructing an econometric model based on the theoretical model and select relevant data, this paper estimates urban residents’ precautionary savings strength for developmental consumption, and verify the existence of pull-out effect. Next the difference of the strength of precautionary savings motive exhibited among areas are compared and analyzed. Final part is the conclusion. Through the analysis of the results summarized, the paper tends to propose proper suggestions aiming at expanding domestic demand and promoting the consumption structure upgrading.The significance of this research lies in:from the perspective of practical applications, with the mental account theory brought into savings behavior analysis, this paper studies the urban residents’ precautionary saving for developmental consumption which denotes a kind of mental account, estimates the strength of precautionary savings motive and analyses the factors, thus proposes effective measures to promote the upgrading of residents’ consumption structure, also provides a realistic basis for the improvement of people’s living level. From the theoretical perspective, this paper is based on dual-risks source frame, gets a new calculation method for relative prudent coefficient, also reflects interaction between the different expenditure categories. This paper deepens and expands the traditional Dynan model, which can enrich the research method for precautionary saving.The basic conclusion is as following:the gap of developmental consumption has expanded year by year; urban residents aiming at the developmental consumption exist significant precautionary saving motive, and relative prudent coefficient is2.55; the interaction effect of two types of consumption has a positive impact on the precautionary savings; survival consumption has generated significant pull-out effect for developmental consumption; compared with middle and west regions, precautionary saving motive for developmental consumption of urban residents in east region is weak, but stronger pull-out effect faced. Finally, this paper suggests that:to increase of disposable income of urban residents, promote the adjustment for industrial structure, and improve social security system and develop consumer credit market can be the proper policies. |
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