The Research Of Chinese City And Rural Precautionary Saving

Since Reform and Opening-up, especially during the 80's, in ourcountry economy, a phenomenon making people focus attention upon hasappeared: Deposit increase quickly and consumption is dejected andapathetic. This phenomenon causes concerns among home and abroadEconomists, they think that lies in resident's motivation of precautionarysaving is too strong.The theory of precautionary saving thinks that precautionary savingis arouse from the uncertainty. Despite that theory has already expanduncertain factor to the uncertainty including income, consumption, thelife length and the medical treatment disbursement, but it still look uponthe uncertainty as the unique factor producing precautionary saving. Thispaper bases on the actual situation of China, definite the precautionarysaving as the saving arouse from the uncertainty and liquidity constraint.Majority scholars use model of precautionary saving is theexpansion of Life-Cycle Hypothesis (RELCH) that conducts anuncertainty under assumption of reason consumer and maximizing utility.This paper is combines ARCH model and State Space model, infers to a State Space Model of precautionary saving, and use the macroeconomicdata of Chinese city and rural area, to analyze the precautionary saving,then compare the fluctuation of motivation of precautionary saving. Atlast, make use of the measured results, discuss the relationship betweenmotivation of precautionary saving and structure of consumption.This text has five main conclusions: First, the liquidity constraint incity is greater than rural area, and the uncertainty is greater than rural areatoo. Two, the effect of interest is very small, and the actual rate of interestreplacement effect plays main role. Three, uncertainty and cautiousefficacy function decided the motivation of precautionary saving, andliquidity constraint increasing precautionary saving by strengtheningconsumer's cautious motivation. Four, the relationship betweenmotivation of precautionary saving and the rate of economic increase isnegative. Five, the relationship between motivation of precautionarysaving and the growth rate of education consumption, of medical securityconsumption is positive.Based on the above research, specifically for the motivation ofprecautionary saving strengthens, here give three corresponding measure:Firstly, the all-direction social security system must be found quickly, anddo favor to the urban and rural residents, perfect the medical treatmentinstitutional reform, educating system reform, and increase the sense ofsecurity. Meanwhiles, we expand investment and employment, lessen uncertainty factor and the risk of umemployment, secondly, opens in thehomeland financial market actively, lightens the adverse effect risingfrom the liquidity constraint again to resident consumption. Thirdly,reduce the income gap, advocate chance fairness, making great efforts toimprove the low-income family's earning.