The Study Of Urban Tourism Sustainable Development Based On The Theory Of Emergy Analysis

How to objectivelyand effectively evaluate thecapacity ofurban tourism sustainabledevelopment,has become a hot issue in tourism academic research. It is essential to unify ecological environment and tourist economy to measure tourist industry sustainable development condition by aquantitative analysis.Emergy analysis as the basic theory of ecological and economic theoretical study, it can put the different types of ecological environment and tourist economy together, to use energy as measurement standard and analyze the various ecological flows. It provides a new approach for meauring urban tourismsustainable development.Based on the perspective of the regional ecological and economic systems, using the emergy analysis method to evaluate and analyze Urbantourismsustainable development in Xiamen. This method can transfer the different types of energy in ecosystem with a relative and uniform standard to emergy, and analyze the emergy in ecosystem to measure tourism sustainable development. Then combined with R/S analysis method, this paper has analyzedtourism sustainable development in future. Using the dates of Xiamen tourism emergy analysis from2001to2012, the condition of tourism sustainable development has been analyzed. In order to forecast the capacity of Xiamen tourism sustainable development in2013-2024, the ARMA forecast models of TEYR and ELR have been constructed. Therefore, the conclusions are as follows:Tourism emergy yield ratio has been showed a downward trend, and in the future, tourism development continues to maintain the downward trend. It indicates that the efficiency of tourism resources and products has been descended, and the tourists can pay less emergy wealth to enjoy more emergy which is negative to accumulate the emergy wealth for the systems.Environment load ratio has been showing an upward trend, and it will continue to rise up. While it is still in the low load condition. As it continues to rise, the environment will be influenced and the burden will be added. The environmental degradation will be more and heavier in future.The tourism emergy yield ratio has been declined, while the environment load ratio has been rised, the capacity of tourism sustainable development in Xiamen, has been declined year by year. In2001, Xiamen tourist industry sustainable development was on the strong sustainable condition, but it fell down to middle sustainable condition in2012. In future, the capacity of tourism industry sustainable development in Xiamen is continue to maintain a downward trend. What’s more, the capacity of tourism sustainable development will turn to be poor in2017, and it will under the level of unsustainable development in2024.In other words, the capacity of tourism sustainable development in Xiamen will become heavily unsustainable development one day.Therefore, it is necessary to take measures to protect the ecological environment and make the appropriate policy to reduce the environmental burden and improve the tourism emergy yield ratio.