Study On The Total Social Financing As The Intermediate Target Of Monetary Policy Choice

Since the intermediate target of monetary policy issues has been raised, it caused the attention of many scholars at home and abroad. With its complicated transmission mechanism and longer lag effect, therefore, we need using intermediate target to adjust the monetary policy timely. Long-term since, the monetary policy of our country use money supply M2and the new RMB loans as key monitoring indicators. What’s more, the majority of scholars pay more attention to research the correlation analysis between the new RMB loans and economic index in the coordination of economic and financial. However, as China’s economy continues to move forward, China social financing pattern has undergone the profound changes. Just from bank credit to judge financing and investment in the economic operation of the whole society and liquidity situation can’t accurately reflect the real economy of the financing scale, difficult to comprehensively and accurately judge and evaluate the supply of money from financial sector to the real economy, in turn, might misjudge the economy and monetary environment make macro policies appear deviation. Facing this situation, People’s bank of China put forward to "keep the reasonable scale of social financing","pay more attention to monetary aggregates in the macroeconomic regulation and from the angle of the total social financing to measure financial support to the economy", marking the total social financing as a new research field has formally entered into the Chinese monetary policy making and operation practice.This paper studied the effect of the structural changes of the total social financing in China on the choice of monetary policy intermediate target in order to analyze the feasibility and practical significance to set it as the intermediate target of monetary policy. On the basis, the study used Eviews6.0to do empirical analysis of relevant data including correlation analysis, stationary test, regression analysis, analysis of the Johansen cointegration test and Granger causality with the intention to verify the feasibility of total social financing as intermediate target. At last, put forward some suggestions to improve the total social financing statistics system, thereby enhancing the effectiveness of China’s monetary policy implementation.