Research On Social Financing Scale And Influence Factors In China

China's financial environment has undergone tremendous changes,the RMB loans has no longer accounted for the vast majority of financial institutions.With the continual innovation of financial markets and products,social financing structure has changed significantly,direct financing has developed rapidly,the role of non-bank financial institutions and commercial banks outside the table business has increased significantly.At the same time,financial regulation is facing new environment and requirements.The urgent need is to determine a more appropriate statistical monitoring indicator and macro-control intermediate target.In 2011,China introduced a new concept that the scale of social financing into macro-control.The central government stressed that China needs to maintain a reasonable scale of social financing in the national financial work conference.In the 2016 government work report,the goal of raising the scale of social financing is about 13%,which is the first time to raise the scale of social financing at the national level.With the appearance of the scale of social financing,this concept still maintains a high degree of social concern,the focal discussed questions are: whether the scale of social financing can replace the existing money supply indicators? Can social financing scale be the only target of monetary policy? What are the shortcomings of the scale of social financing? This dissertation intends to go into details of these problems and the expected results are as follows:This dissertation is divided into seven chapters and four parts.The first part is the introduction,which is to introduce the purpose of research,research significance,research status of the scale of social financing at home and abroad,research techniques and methods.The second part is mainly the theoretical basis of this dissertation,including the second and the third chapters.Firstly,the second chapter introduces the related concepts and the development path of the scale of social financing.As well,this part carrys on a brief contrast analysis of the scale of social financing and monetary policy tools,including the characteristic and the limitation of social finance scale.This dissertation analyzes the connotation and related relationship between the monetary policy objectives and the intermediate objectives,which paves the way for the analysis of the middle of the monetary policy as follows.Secondly,the third chapter focuses on the analysis of the rationality of the social financing scale as the middle of the monetary policy.By collecting data of the total investment in fixed assets,current deposits,domestic absorption,GDP,final consumption,retail sales,export of goods and services,CPI and other indicators,this dissertation makes a comparative analysis of the scale of social financing and M2 on China's economic indicators related to the degree of relevance,so as to explain the scale of social financing as a monetary policy intermediate target is more inevitable than M2.The third part is mainly the construction and simulation application of social financing system,including Chapter 4 and Chapter 5.By using the system dynamics to construct the social financing system,this part analyzes the influence of various factors on social financing scale and use regression,correlation and hypodissertation inspection and other methods to set the parameters and predict the comparison.Firstly,Chapter 4 analyzes the construction environment,basic factors,main variables and causality of social financing from the perspective of multidimensional perspective,so as to establish a set of more suitable and real-time social financing system,and explore the balance mechanism and information flow of social financing system.This chapter also constructs the social financing system framework,designes the social financing system causal diagram,GDP level variables flow chart and borrowing capital circuit in the social financing system.On the basis of the construction of social financing system,Chapter 5 explores the relationship between social demand,economic policy,financing structure and macroeconomic pattern with social financing scale,and analyzes the sensitivity of monetary policy and social financing scale.Meanwhile this chapter will forecast the scale of future social financing based on the social financing system.The third part is the sixth chapter.This part comes up with the countermeasure suggestion from five angles: the demand,structure,statistics,supervision,policy to improve the social financing scale decision-making usefulness countermeasures.Chapter 7 is the summary and prospects.The main innovation of this research include the following three points:(1)Establish the forecasting model of social financing system from the perspective of complex systemIndexes of social financing scale exist certain inadaptability and hysteresis,and the correlation between factors and indexes also need to be dynamic.These properties are all affect the performance of complexity of social financing scale.The traditional correlation analysis,statistical test and the linear regression are difficult to really resolving the evolution of social financing scale.This dissertation discusses the Social financing system architecture from the aspects of demand,the structure and policy etc.based on the system dynamics.It also uses system dynamics to analysis the feasibility and necessity of social financing system.In addition,it designs the social financing system framework,the financing system of cause and effect diagram,social financing system level variable flow diagram and social lending capital financing system of the circuit,etc.which provide a good systematic support for the social financing scale application and impact assessment.Then it builds a rational society based on China's economic development target forecast model of financing structure.(2)Propose suggestions to optimize the scale of social financing on the basis of mutual assessment of prediction and realityThe ever recommendations often have a historical historical dependence,that is they often dependent on the interpretation of history.But with the rapidly changing of times,the path dependence are gradually weakening or shorten which lead to the limited reference value.By constructing the social financing system simulation,this dissertation can reflect the social financing scale indicators,but the social relations among the various indicators in financing system and index change trend need to set parameters.Therefore,this dissertation uses regression,correlation,hypothesis testing and other multiple methods to make parameter optimization and estimate its predict model by the measurement of supply and demand balance.Eventually,it forms a set of system framework—parameter setting—forecasting test simulation system which provide a good prospect of path analysis of evaluation of social financing scale.(3)Reveal the rationality of the social financing scale as the target of monetary policy through comparative analysisUsing statistical analysis method to analyze the correlation coefficient of macroeconomic indicators with social financing scale and the M2.It finds that the social financing has a higher correlation with GDP,final consumption,total sales of commodities-retail,the whole society of total investment in fixed assets,current deposit,absorb domestic investment than M2 except for the indicator of CPI.This dissertation illustrates the social financing scale has a significant correlation with the macroeconomic from the quantitative point of view and use the social financing scale as intermediate target of monetary policy has a certain scientific nature and rationality.In addition,on the basis of social financing system,this dissertation explores the factor correlation of social financing scale and put forward the mechanism of adjusting the size and structure of social financing from the macro,meso and micro level.