The Estimation Of The Risk Of Chinese City Investment Bond

The thesis mainly describes the structure and source of Chinese city investmentbond’s risk, and tries to use mathematic tool to estimate the credit risk of Chinese cityinvestment bond. The thesis describes the cause and the relationship between factors. Then,the thesis uses the credit spread of new issue bond to represent the credit risk of cityinvestment bond, and summarizes the factors which affect the credit risk spread. Last thethesis uses multiple regression models to select the major factor of credit risk spread, andthen do the tests of model effectiveness. It is found that the most important factor ismonthly date of M2, the second is the total asset amount of issuer and the provision ofbond. Otherfactors such as the finance condition of local government areless importantones.