| Refers to the risk that a borrower will default on any type of debt by failing to make payments which it is obligated to do.The core of the free market economy is credit,cedit risk play an important role in today’s economy,especially in Financial Industry.The debt crisi in1980brings the great loss to the whole bank systemy,from that moment.the bank system start to make effort to enhance the management on credit risk.However several fiancial risk happens recently remind us that,the management on credit risk we have is not enough.So how to measure the credit risk and pevent its damage still worth to study.Generally speaking, the sutdy on enterprise’s credit risk theory and the method to measure is rare.The data they applied in these research is also can not be proved.This article on the basis of the fomer economist’s study progress, make study on enterprise’s credit risk, we use data from60enterprises on the stock market and70enterprises in yangzhou,to search the best way to measure the credit risk. At last,we check the outcome of the model and use it to measure all the enterprises in Jiangsu province.We have the conclusion below:The Logistics model is the best way to measure the enterprise’s credit risk at present.The model has a high pecent on forecast enterprise’s credit rsik sucessfully and can be use to help the domestic’s bank to measure the credit resik proply.The Indicator that reflect prfitability such as Undistributed profit divided by total assets^Earnings before interest and tax in total assets has a larger impact on a enterprise’s credit risk.The MDA can not be applied to measure the small-medium enterprise’credit risk.Some special indicator can be applied to reflect enterprise’s Long-term solvency.The enterprise in JiangSu has a good credit institution.the average default probility is22.39%and the average default probility on ST enterprise is92.32%.This outcome can be used by reference in future’s building on enterprise’s credit risk prevent system. |
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