The Research Of Measuring Of Credit Risk To The Development Finance

During the past few decades, esp. since the 1990s, the techniques of credit risk measuring and management have been changed obviously under the transformation of social environment and the influence of various economical factors All the institutions around the world are facing the ever- increasing credit risk thus it will become the most challenging subject of the risk-researching region in the coming decades. The credit risk should be measured and managed while a risk-control mechanism is set up with the functions of early risk alarming and later performance evaluation. It is not only good for realizing reaching secure a safe and profitable self-management of the banks in the micro view, but also good for a total stable financial system and healthily lasting development of the economy in the macro.Policy banks, esp. CDB, which is guided by developing financial notion plays a key role in the development of our economy and social development. It is essential to the national economy and it is demanding for development financial institutions to upgrade the level of credit risk measuring in order to achieve a ever-lasting development since the proposal of financial reform of policy banks gradually put forward. So it is of theoretical and realistic importance to set up a method or a system to measure and control the credit risk of the policy banks that is suitable for Chinese economical and financial environment.This paper mainly deals with the measuring and management of credit risk to the developing finance, CDB as a representative example. The five research we made in this paper are brought forward as following based on the advanced and scientific techniques and methods in foreign banking combined with the real situation of China: Firstly, The author made a comparison between the measuring techniques, model and methods of the credit risk at home and abroad; Secondly, we analyzed basic principles and processing mechanism of development finance, the author theoretical analyzed the courses of its credit risk; Thirdly, the author discussed the arrangement of grades, choice of target, ensuring of power about risk evaluating system for government credit; Fourthly, the author further analyzed the influence of various factors which determine the nature and ration to the credit risk of policy banks through the technique of information and data disposing; Finally, The author concluded the existing difficulty during the establishing process of the risk measuring module and flow.The major contributions of this article are as follows:(1) we found out the credit risk of CDB has three characteristics, that is, secular mass, highly centralized, special principal risk part.(2) we divided the existing credit capitals like companies into two categories, that is capitals of companies credit-adding through non-government arrangement and credit-adding through government arrangement, and adopted different measuring methods between them. For the former, it is better to mainly measured by mark cards combining with evaluating of credit items while majoring in the perfecting and amending of the choice of target and ensuring of power, to upgrade its sensitivity and validity; as for the later, suggesting to use discriminant forecasting model PD and LGD based on measured by mark cards.(3) we designed a risk evaluating system for government credit combined government evaluating target system with the local one, dilated 1, thus made the credit risk measuring methods of capitals of companies credit-adding through government arrangement establish and perfect.(4) we directed the most outstanding quantitative factors according to its influence to the degree of credit and capital quality, and then used the result to create forecasting model PD which based on logistic model, discriminant analyzing model which based on multi- linearity and regressing model respectively as well as discriminant analyzing model which takes the risk grades of credit at term as the variable being explained, the detected results showed all the above models are of certain stability and applicability.(5) we put forward a basic frame of the credit risk management system for development finance and the nucleus frame which containing risk measuring module and flow, and brought out its key working points and measure of principle guarantee which basis on the conclusion of existing difficulty during the establishing process.