The Empirical Analysis Of TianJin Urban Residents’Consumption Mobility

Since the thirties of last century, the study of consumer theory is one of the important elements of the Western Economics, in particular, under the frame of intertemporal optimal choice to establish consumption theory is the core work of mainstream economics research in recent years. The use of intertemporal consumption model can explain consumers’ behavior and the consumer evolution path well. And also there is a wide variety of research methods of the consumption intertemporal choice model, such as the Life Cycle-Permanent Income model, Precautionary Saving model, the Liquidity Constraint model and λ hypothesis model, and so on. However, determined by the special situation in China, such as consumer behavior, habits and the difficulty to obtain sample data, parts of the Western mainstream consumer theory can not applled in China. This also restricts the research of the consumer intertemporal choice behavior. Therefore, the study of intertemporal consumer behavior of residents or families from the other perspective becomes one of the important content of Chinese economic.By the study of consumers’ consumption mobility, on the one hand, can reflect the consumption changes of the relative position over time; On the other hand, by estimating the intertemporal elasticity of substitution coefficient can explain the intertemporal consumption behavior characteristics of the different groups from the other side. In this paper, we define the consumption mobility as the description of the dynamic behavior of the overall distribution of household consumption, which is corresponding to the individual behavior of the family intertemporal consumption choice. The differences in consumption characteristics between different groups will inevitably lead to the heterogeneity of intertemporal choice. But the consumption mobility can express this cross-heterogeneity with the corresponding values of the indicators. At present, there are two mainstream methods to measure the consumption mobility. One of the methods is based on the first-order Markov Transition matrix and the mobility indexes. And he other one is the regression coefficients of Pseudo Panel Data AR (1) model suggested by Antman and Mckenzie (2007).Based on the monthly data of urban residents by Tianjin survey organization, we apply Cohort Analysis to construct Pseudo Panel Data and do an Empirical Analysis on the consumption mobility which those householders have the same age and those who were born in the same annual period. The analysis results show that the overall consumption mobility level of the residents is on the low side. The youth’s family group who have the same age and middle-aged family group demonstrate a higher liquidity. The elderly consumer group is relatively stable. The group who was born in the same annual period near about1949to1978show a higher mobility, and then followed by the group who was born about the period of the reform and opening up and the group who was born before1949. Finally, this article puts forward some policy suggestions to stimulating domestic demand on the basis of the consumption mobility results for different groups. And these policies can boost consumer spending upward flow, optimizing the consumption structure of urban residents and improve the contribution rate of consumption to economic growth.