Research On The Network Transmission Mechanism Of Agricultural Futures Price

As the saying goes,agriculture is the foundation of a state and when the foundation is solid the state enjoys tranquility.The report of the Party’s 20 th National Congress pointed out that the most arduous and onerous task for comprehensively promoting the important strategy of rural revitalization is still in the rural areas,and specific plans have been made to“Comprehensively consolidate the foundation of food security”,“Expand the channels for farmers to increase income and get rich”,and “Improve the rural financial service system”.As one of the important platforms for agricultural marketization,the futures market should play a role in the above decision-making and deployment.It should combine the spot market jointly to serve the increase of farmers’ income and the high-quality development of agriculture.Therefore,this thesis focuses on the transmission network mechanism of agricultural futures price to provide support for rural farmers,enterprises to avoid risks,and the government’s policy regulation.This thesis carries on the following research: First of all,the theoretical basis and the necessity description.1.This thesis expounds the theories of complex network and related literature of agricultural product price transmission,and also explains the external factors that affect the price of agricultural products.2.The development process,development status and existing problems of agricultural product futures market are discussed.3.The thesis analyzes the upstream and downstream relationship of agricultural futures from the perspective of industrial chain.Secondly,research on the transmission network mechanism of the internal futures price of agricultural products.The Granger causality weighted network of 15 agricultural futures is constructed,the core varieties are analyzed,the important propagation paths are found out,and the community structure is analyzed.Finally,research on the transmission network mechanism of other kinds and agricultural futures price.The Nanhua Agricultural Products Index and Nanhua Energy Index were selected to construct a complex network based on their correlation fluctuation modes.The core modes,core camps and important transmission paths in the network were analyzed.The research results are as follows: For the research on the transmission network mechanism of domestic agricultural futures price: First,cotton,wheat,sugar futures are the core agricultural products,which the transmission medium effect and influence degree are the largest;Second,the price network of agricultural futures has good connectivity.The price fluctuation of one agricultural product will quickly have an effect on the price of other products,and affect the price fluctuation of the whole agricultural futures market.Third,the important transmission path is the network with corn futures as the core origin,and it is a one-way closedloop path composed of three core agricultural products of wheat,cotton and sugar: Wheat →Cotton → Sugar → Wheat.Fourth,there are four "communities" in the network,and the "Community Four" composed of {cotton,cotton yarn,soybean meal and rapeseed oil} has the strongest transmission capacity.For the research on the transmission network mechanism of energy & chemical and agricultural futures price: First,for the three consecutive days of price changes,the frequency of price fluctuation in the same direction is the highest,and most of the fluctuations are weak positive correlation,followed by the frequency of no correlation,and the frequency of negative correlation is the lowest.Second,the two prices have correlation or no correlation in a period of time,and appear alternately.Third,the linkage fluctuation of the two prices is periodic with a period of 3-4 days.The conversion between core modes needs to go through at least three steps: BBB→BBU→BUU→UUU.Based on the above research conclusions,the following suggestions are put forward: First,rural farmers should accurately identify core agricultural products,pay attention to their price fluctuations and trends,clarify the price transmission path,and guide farmers to plant and sell grain to achieve income increase.Second,enterprises should take advantage of the periodicity of price changes,identify the core camp and transmission path,and improve the operation to avoid risks and hedge.Third,the government should pay timely attention to the linkage of prices,establish the pricing mechanism of agricultural futures market,reasonably monitor and warn,make price forecast and timely regulate policies to ensure national food security.