The Impact Of Rmb Exchange Rate Changes On China’s Tea Export Trade

The reform of China’s exchange rate is continuing, the goal of exchange rate reform is to achieve two-way fluctuations of the RMB exchange rate, so the export enterprises will often face the risk of RMB exchange rate. Since2005, the RMB exchange rate continued to appreciate, and the expectation of appreciation is very strong. Under this background, it is significant to study the fluctuation of RMB exchange rate produces what kind of impact on China’s tea export trade and that China should take what measures to deal with it.This paper mainly studies the impact of RMB exchange rate changes on China’s tea export trade and the countermeasures. First, it studies the situation of China’s tea export trade and the changing trend of RMB exchange rate. Then, it uses the fluctuation of RMB exchange rate about balance of trade theory to theoretical analyze how the fluctuation of RMB exchange rate affect China’s tea export trade. Next, it uses the individual fixed effect variable coefficient model to empirically analyze the impact of the fluctuation of RMB exchange rate on China’s tea export. The results show that the real exchange rate between RMB and every country’s currency has a relatively large impact on China’s tea export. The impact of exchange rate changes on China’s special tea is the largest; the minimum is the green tea. The impact of RMB appreciation on China’s tea export is disadvantageous, there is hysteresis and the direction is fluctuation for the impact, the RMB real exchange rate changes has a long-term impact On China’s tea exports to Hong Kong, the United States, Russia, Mauritania, Germany and Senegal and a short-term impact on China’s tea exports to Morocco, Japan and Algeria. Finally, on the basis of the results of the previous analysis, it Proposed policy recommendations to promote the development of China’s tea export trade from how to avoid the risk of exchange rate changes, reduce the impact of exchange rate changes, expand the export of tea market and improve the export competitiveness of tea export.