Research On The Influence Of Appreciation Of The RMB Exchange Rate On China's Foreign Trade Model Structure

Foreign exchange rate (FER) is a major factor for influencing the import and export trade development of a country or region. Synthesize the previous studies about the effect of FER on international trade from worldwide scholars, we can find that these studies almost focus on the effect of FER to trade balance, the terms of trade and trade scale, but there is few article studying the effect of FER for the foreign trade structure, especially for the foreign trade model structure. So this paper takes the exchange rate system reform In July 2005 in China as an opportunity, In the background of China's RMB exchange rate rising and slogan of optimizing the structure of foreign trade from" 12.5" priority planning, and according to the structure of introduction-mechanism analysis-existing condition analysis-the empirical analysis-policy suggestions to study the impact mechanism and effect of RMB exchange rate appreciation to trade model structure.This paper firstly put forward the research background and significance, and then systematically reviews some relevant theoretical and empirical studies about RMB exchange rate to international trade and proposes the framework, methods and route of this paper. The second chapter briefly introducts the concept and measure gauge of RMB exchange rate, trade structure and trade model structure, and then build theoretical model to discuss influence mechanism of RMB exchange rate on China's trade model structure. In the third chapter, it mainly analyses current situation of this two main variables, and then review the historical evolution process, the cause of the appreciation of RMB exchange rate system and the characteristics of trade model structure.On the basis of the above analyses, this article takes four indexes, such as inter-industry trade index, intra-industry trade index, vertical intra-industry trade index and horizontal intra-industry trade index subdivided under the Intra-industry trade pattern as the dependent variable, takes the RMB exchange rate as the explained variable, and bring FDI, industry scale, market structure and virtual variable which reflects the subprime crisis as main control variables. And then this paper builds panel data model and use econometric software E-views6.0 to carry out panel cointegration test between these variables. The empirical result shows that RMB exchange rate appreciation is beneficial to the development of inter-industry trade and horizontal intra-industry trade but unfavorable to the vertical intra-industry trade. Therefore, the appreciation of RMB exchange rate finally adversely affects the optimization and upgrading of intra-industry trade and it has side effects in the upgrading of our country's trade model structure. At last, this article puts forward some measures from the aspects of RMB exchange rate and trade model structure to adjust the current exchange rate policy and optimize the structure of foreign trade in China.