Some Researches On Hainan Tourism By Time Series Methods

We concern the following three aspects in this thesis:(1) Base on the the Hainan Tourism overnighttotal number,we establish the seasonal adjustment model and ARMA model.By comparing the meansquare error of two models,we find that: the short-term forecast of the seasonal adjustment model issuperior. Then we, forecasting the total overnight travel number of Hainan from January2013to Decem-ber2013;(2)From the entry night total number from January2003to December2012and the overnightnumber of Hong Kong, Macao, Taiwan, foreigners,we establish the linear relationship.(3)from the ques-tionnaire of Hainan tourism’s satisfaction, we find that the hainan’s humanities and basis frustrationneed to be improved.Selection the above three aspects as the main topic of this thesis,the following reasons:(1)The numberof tourists is one important indicator of the tourism industry.The character of Time series method isperiodic the future based on the past.(2)With the release of/a number of opinions under the StateCouncil on Promoting the Development and Building of International Tourism in Hainan Island0,Hainan International Tourism Island is raised to national strategies formally.International developmentto a certain extent,brings opportunities to Hainan,but it also braised great challenges.We establish aliner relationship between Hong Kong, Macao, Taiwan and foreign and the total number of touristsfrom the past ten years.We determine the respective weights, in order to do jobs related to the totalnumber of more targeted reception work.(3)In recent years,many passengers in hainan are asked to paymore,which is pushed to the cusp again and again.More and more passengers are unsatisfied with hainan’stourism,which is not good for hainan’s economic.So it is necessary to research by setting the form of aquestionnaire in airports, train stations and other places of tourists to Hainan tourism, the touristsatisfaction questionnaire are dissuaded and analyzed.The thesis includes three parts: chapter one is the introduction of knowledge, including research,background and significance;Chapter two, the introduction of the Time series modeling principle;Chapterthree,the three aspects of the problem are analyzed and concluded respectively;Finally,we make appro-priate recommendations and measures on the construction of Hainan International Tourism Island.