The Influence Of RMB Real Exchange Rate To Trade In Services Of China: An Empirical Analysis

In recent years, with the international industrial investment focus shifted to theservice industry, service industry expanding its investment, trade in services graduallyreplaced trade in goods, becoming the protagonist of world trade. In this context,China’s service trade grew rapidly, and after joining the WTO was to acceleratedevelopment. In2011, China’s service trade volume reached419.1billion U.S. dollars,accounting for the proportion of China’s trade balance rose to11%, the proportion oftotal world trade in services rose to6%. It is foreseeable that service trade in China andthe world economy will be increasingly important role. But the current development ofChina’s service trade still exist many problems, especially in the last five years, China’sservice trade balance deficit to accelerate the expansion. Interestingly, just in servicestrade deficit gradually increase in the same period, real exchange rate showedsignificant appreciation trend.According to the traditional theory of exchange rate,exchange rate and trade balance showed a reverse change, so the author guess theexpansion of services trade deficit would relevant with the RMB real exchange rateappreciation.All along, trade in services research lagged behind the development of trade inservices.Domestic scholars mainly focus on the study of the RMB exchange rate on thetrade balance of goods impact,little attention concentrate on trade balance for services.Only a few minority literature, whether it is research methods, object or depth ofresearch, are obviously not comprehensive enough. For the above conjecture anddomestic research, drawing on previous article on the real exchange rate and trade ingoods research methods and models, through the establishment of the RMB realexchange rate and China’s service trade balance VAR model, using co-integrationanalysis methods for both long-term relationship between the empirical analysis,mainly to answer the following questions: RMB exchange rate on services tradebalance how much influence this impact in the long term and short term respectivelyWhat is the difference? What is the logic behind the impact? Trade in services ingeneral and departmental expenditure is consistent with the changes? Consistent orinconsistent reasons for changes in what?This article is based on vector auto-regression model, the real exchange rate andservice trade relations between the long-term co-integration analysis, obtained with thetraditional trade theory the opposite conclusion: the long term, the RMB real exchange rate appreciation will result in services trade surplus; And the short term, the RMB realexchange rate appreciation in the first year will be reduced trade surplus in services,but the second year impact becomes positive. However, this paper analyzes empiricalresults obtained with different guess three reasons, there is no denying the traditionaltrade theory. And trade in services for the Chinese situation and problems, this paperput forward to improve the services trade deficit of several policy recommendations.Of course, since trade in services statistics regime and other reasons, China’sservice trade monthly and quarterly data are missing, we had to seek retreat followed,using annual data, the data require a higher frequency of co-integration analysis areconcerned, what affecting the quality of empirical results in same certain extent.