The Safety Evaluation And Early Warning Mechanism Of China’s Export Industry Under The Blue Barrier

In the developing process of the liberalization of the world trade, traditional trade barriers are gradually weakening, a variety of "invisible" non-tariff trade barriers are becoming the main reasons that restrict the foreign trade development in developing countries. The blue trade barrier whose core is Social Accountability SA8000is gradually becoming the barrier that has the biggest impact on China’s economy following technical barriers. The blue trade barrier is created to weaken the labor cost advantage of developing countries, mainly taking effect on their labor-intensive products. China is the largest export country in the world, and its export products are mainly labor-intensive products, so the blue trade barrier is bound to affect China’s export industry adversely. Now we still lack the knowledge of blue trade barrier. Therefore, quantitative evaluation of the safety of China’s export industry under the blue barrier and the establishment of a corresponding set of early warning mechanisms will have important theoretical and practical significance.This paper is based on previous studies, starting from theories related about the blue barrier, and use game theory, partial equilibrium analysis, entropy method and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method as tools to study China’s export industry security and early warning mechanism design under the blue barrier.First, this article makes a simple comb on blue trade barriers theory, and introduces the causes, development, content and features of the blue barrier, focusing on the blue trade barriers basic theory and the legal issues, and use methods of game theory to analyze the trade competition between developed and developing countries.Then use the partial equilibrium method to qualitatively study the impact that the blue barrier makes on the safety of China’s export industry. First, from the macro-level analyze the overall impact of the blue barrier on China’s export industry, followed by analysis of the impact of China’s export environment, conditions and export object. Then from the meso-level analyze the adverse impact on low-end labor-intensive export industries in China and industrial upgrading of China’s export industry. Finally, from the micro-level analyze the short-term and long-term effects of the blue barrier making on China’s export enterprises.On the basis of the study that the blue barrier has effect on the safety of China’s export industry, this article expands the empirical analysis of the safety evaluation of China’s export industry under the blue trade barriers. First make a brief description of the index system, then introduces the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model, finally make a specific evaluation results using the corresponding indicator data from2000to2011. The results from2000to2006are below the critical security state in the selected12years, which means that more than half of the results of the evaluation are unsafe. However, after the year of2007, China’s textile export industry in the area of security control has made breakthrough progress across the boundaries of the critical safety. After2007, this situation has continued to improve and the result of2011, has been extremely close to a safe state. Throughout the past12years, the safety of China’s textile export industry is getting better and better.Based on the analysis of the safety evaluation of the textile export industry, this paper tries to establish the early warning mechanism of China’s export industries under the blue barrier. First determine the operational goals and try to build early warning indicator system of China’s export industry, taking the textile industry as an example, then use the entropy value method to determine the importance of early warning indicators and use the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method to implement a monitoring process, at last list the corresponding warning criteria.Finally, give suggestions from three angles of the macro, meso and micro based on the reality of China’s export industry that faces the blue barrier. The macro level, hope the Government will make a greater effort to build a free trade zone and to guide enterprises to correctly use the WTO dispute mechanism to resolve trade friction, while seeking to do a good job of foreign publicity work. The meso level, make advices that our industry associations should establish a practical early warning mechanism under the blue barrier, play an effective role as a link between the government and enterprises and formulate the rules well in the industry. The micro level, give suggestions that Chinese enterprises should improve their competitiveness, establish the correct consciousness of the blue trade barriers, actively carry out technological innovation, and focus on market diversification.