The Shock Effect Of Macroeconomic Fluctuations On Our Financial Security

Financial security is an important part of China’s economic security, which directly affect our country’s economic security. With the development of Chinese market economic, the financial activities and financial behavior have infiltrated all areas of economic life, and increasingly become intermediaries of various types of economic entities. At the same time, financial risk is significantly increasing in various fields of economic, so it has become the current hot issues to guard against financial risks and defend the financial security.Now, macroeconomic volatility is becoming more and more frequently, and a variety of economic changes are happening. Under the condition that the economic entities are very close to each other, any economic fluctuations will give our economy a serious effect. In this context, how to maintain the health of our financial security is becoming our government’s most important question. This essay discusses the impact of economic fluctuations on the financial security first, then introduces the evaluation index system of financial security on the basis of the previous studies, constructs the financial security index, and establishes the Unconstrained VAR Model.From the study of four subsystems, the article get a basic conclusion that macroeconomic situations are significant improved, financial institutions security situations are better year by year, however the foreign financial security situations are worse. Though the VAR Model is accepted by the majority of economists, VAR model has also criticized by part of economists for its strong data dependence and short of theory basis.Today traditional economics is criticized for some reasons, first traditional economists use static expectations or adaptive expectations, rather than rational expectations in their models which are used to depict the real world economy; second, traditional econometric models commonly use model in the form of simplified style, the results of analysis and simulation may not be reliable and cannot avoid the Lucas critique, third, traditional econometric models are very subjective leading people cannot grasp the real impact of the economy, the results of simulation analysis does not have the objectivity; the last,traditional econometric models tend to describe the dynamic mechanism with a greater degree of arbitrariness, different scholars often according to their needs set different dynamic effects, which often cause behavior that cannot truly reflect the various economic agents’optimal decisions. The VAR Models also have the shortcomings of the traditional model, the VAR model constructed in this article for economic analysis of the fluctuations on the financial security also has the shortcomings of the traditional model, such as the VAR model take only adaptive expectations into consideration, do not consider the rational expectations; the models only consider the knock-on effects of the first-order variable; differ significantly from the dynamic characterization of some of the variables in the financial markets and the real economic.Given the VAR model several defects, and even more accurate to show the impact of various external shocks on the individual by the financial market variables, the fifth part of this paper from the microscopic point of analysis, combined with economies behavior rational expectations resource constraints, and establish a micro-based open macroeconomic general equilibrium DSGE model, which maximize the utility function and its constraints into the theoretical analysis and the analysis of the model into equilibrium analysis. In this simplified model, the introduction of the impact of the enterprise space area of enterprise productivity impact as well as the impact of money supply variables affect China’s financial security.