Agricultural Drought Insurance Ratemaking Base On Risk Zoning And Risk Management Study

In recent years, in the context of climate change and extreme climate events whi ch occur frequently, drought agro-meteorological disasters which occur frequently h ad taken a serious threat for our food production, food security and agricultural sus tainable development. Hebei Province as China’s grain production provinces, the situation of food production to ensure the province and the country’s food security is of great significance. Select or build suitable of agricultural drought disaster risk indicators for drought risk zoning, which on this basis of disaster insurance rates and zoning determined, for the rich agricultural insurance model to promote the stability and development of the agricultural insurance business has important application value. Therefore, Hebei Province’s the winter wheat region of as an example, which based on the natural water deficit rate index, precipitation anomalies of the percentage rate, drought index and between the three weight coefficients to build drought comprehensive risk region model, and to build drought risk classification model to carry out drought risk regionalization, rich China’s drought monitoring and risk zoning index system; Using the revised premium rate applicable to the study area ratemaking model, and searching for a more comprehensive improvement of the current shortcomings of agricultural insurance business insurance model; On the basis of the drought risk zoning and rates determined, studied and proposed drought risk management system mode and programs, which for the government to respond effectively to agricultural drought and disaster prevention and mitigation management provided Technical Reference theoretical basis. The main results are as follows:(1) Natural water deficit rate index(Wi), precipitation anomaly percentage (Ji)and drought resistance index (Ai) as well as other indicators, using gray correlation method to determine the weight (a=0.320, b=0.373, c=0.307) on the basis of build drought risk index Bi=(Wi*a+Ji*b)*(Ai*c), which conduct drought risk zoning on the study area. Combined with the winter wheat yield reduction and the frequency of drought, carried out a comprehensive drought risk index Bi verify, with spatial scales indicate that build comprehensive drought risk index Bi has a certain applicability and reliability.(2) Analysis the spatial and temporal characteristics of different drought index. Seen from sequence variation from time, natural water deficit rate index and precipitation anomaly percentage index in41years, reaching the probability of the dry weight Year sequentially of22%and44%; drought index and Comprehensive Drought Index in16years to reach the probability of the dry weight Year sequentially of6.3%and25%. Seen from space distribution results from the risk zoning, the paper constructs the comprehensive drought risk index reflects the level of risk case is consistent with other drought index and is closely linked with the climatic conditions, terrain conditions and the distribution of irrigation and water conservancy facilities.(3) Use non-parametric method to set the winter wheat yield insurance rates and combined with winter wheat drought risk index, and fixed a real premium rate. Found by drought risk index and drought frequency as well as natural water deficit rate index and drought frequency of the linear relationship between contrast, the paper constructs drought risk index is the most reliable, with a certain application value for the pure premium rate correction.(4) Include drought disaster prevention, emergency response and recovery aid system’s drought risk management framework and model, combined with drought disaster risk index and the insurance rate determined by regionalization conclusion, Put forward the Hebei drought risk management programs and specific measures for local governments to carry out disaster prevention and mitigation and emergency services to provide a reference.