Forecasting Methords For Spare Parts Of Short Lifecycle Products And Application In Zhanwang Electronic Company

With the development of economy and technology, the lifecycle of product hasbecame shorter, it is more obvious to electronic products. Spare parts management asthe support to after service, its difficulty also bacame huger. Spare parts for shortlifecycle products mean to the component of the products which needs to be replacedin process of maintenance. At present, there are a lot of research methods for spare partsprediction, but there was no special for short lifecycle. The research in short lifecycleproducts mainly focused on sales prediction. Therefore, an effective method to predictthe demand of spare part of short lifecycle products accurately is so meaningfully. Itcan help enterprise satisfy the customer’s service needs timely and effectively. So asto improve customer satisfaction, shaping a good brand image, laying a goodfoundation for the enterprise long-term development.This paper selected short life cycle electronic product spare parts demandforecast as research content, based on literature research and enterprise investigation.Firstly we analyzed the features of short life cycle, then according to the interviewconclusion and collected data characteristics of short life cycle summed up thecharacteristics of the electronic product spare parts demand. According to itscharacteristics and the need of short life cycle electronic products enterprises in spareparts prediction, we built three kinds of prediction models. Include the following threeaspects in particular:First, through enterprise investigation and analysis historical demand data, weextract the characteristics of spare parts demand of short life cycle electronic products.Second, through analysis of the existing prediction methods using conditions andinsufficient, proposed one method useing wavelet and EMD improvement ARMA to forecast next needs of spare part, one method to forecast total demand periods of spareparts, and one method of total demand for spare parts.Third, A simulation test was designed, using Matlab to realized the methods,verification with the history of the collection of spare parts demand data, compare theresult with existing spare parts demand forecasting methods, which validated thesuperiority of the improved algorithm and improved the effectiveness of the newalgorithm.