Empirical Analysis On The Causes Of International Financial Crisis Conduction

Along with integration into the global economy and the development of financialliberalization, conduction effect of financial crisis is greatly enhanced. Through theoreticalanalysis and historical investigation of the Asian financial crisis from1997, the global financialstorm triggered by the US subprime mortgage crisis from2007, the sovereign debt crisis beganin Greece at the end of2009, it concludes that the vulnerability of the macro fundamentals, tradeand finance spillover, net conduction effects are three main causes of the internationalconduction of financial crisis. Then from the perspective of emerging market countries,developing countries and developed countries, this paper compares these three crises about theirnature, scope of conduction, conduction channels etc. Combining with the general rules ofinternational conduction, policy suggestions are put forward according to the reality of ourcountry.This paper, based on the classic theory, sets a weighted average of the exchange rate andinternational reserve rate as the measure index of the crisis, trade correlations index is improvedto measure cross conduction effects. In accordance with the different nature of the crisis andorigin countries, the conduction mechanism is further refined. Combination of the three typicalfinancial crisis, with the aid of related economic mathematical model analysis, it reveals thatfinancial crisis translates from the developed world to emerging market countries mainly throughthe trade channel and the financial crisis conduction between the developed countries works viathe financial channel in most instances. Macro fundamentals vulnerability and net conductioneffects in different crisis are unavoidable in the way of conduction.