The Financial Warning Study From SBM Efficiency Perspective Of Listed Firms

The Company’s financial crisis early warning research are highly concerned byscholars both at home and abroad, the study has high academic value as well as awide range of application. In recent years, with the formation of global economicintegration, China’s capital market has been rapid development, increasing uncertaintyin the market, the company’s financial risk has become even more prominent. Underthis background, the financial crisis has become one of the important risks which needto be anticipated and deal with by investors and creditors, how to strengthen earlywarning and risk management is particularly important.In this article, we chose56companies which were special treated for the first yearfrom2008to2010as a sample for research, also chose56non-ST companies aspaired samples. Set the Financial crisis year as T-year. Due to the T-1-year annualreport of listed companies will be published in next April, it is almost the same time todecide whether a company will be special treated, the T-1-year data of little earlywarning value. This article based on the T-2and T-3years of warning, focus toT-2-year for example, elaborated the Logistic warning model building and the processof repairing warning modeling. Firstly we collected20financial indicators data of112companies in T-1、T-2years. Then we selected financial indicators by principalcomponent analysis, and constructed the early warning model of the enterprise’sfinancial crisis with the rest of the financial indicators by using the method of LogisticRegression Analysis. And got the forecasting correct rate was85.7%in T-2-year,68.8%in T-3year. Thirdly we selected2input indicators and1output indicator to calculateSBM efficiency of each company, we use the SBM efficiency as a non-financialindicator to get the modified Logistic model. The results showed that the modifiedmodel forecasting correct rate increased to89.3%in T-2-year, increased to71.4%inT-3-year. This article is different from those warning research which based onfinancial indicators, put the SBM efficiency as non-financial indicator in the Logisticfinancial early warning model to further judge the results.