Research On The Relationship Between The Import Trade And Economic Growth In Hebei Province

Since j oining the WTO, China’s foreign trade comes through high-speed development,and has became a key facter of economic development.However,because of various negative factors,such as trade barriers, domestic currency appreciation pressure,inflationary pressures and global financial crisis,the export-oriented strategy of economic development which China obversed for a long time is difficult to sustain.Both in terms of development experience or policy needs in post financial crisis era,China should think highly of economic growth effect of import trade from the height of the development strategy.Numerous studies have shown that import trade can push up economy directly and indirectly. The effects of import trade on economic growth are different due to different resources endowment.China has vast territory, Provinces economy development level difference is very big.Therefore,in a relatively specific area,under the condition of relatively stable economy and policy,research in a region of import trade and economic growth relations,is more practical and more reliable. Statistics show that Hebei province in2012with a per capita GDP is lower than the national average,import trade ranked10th nation wide. This phenomenon is contrary to it’s "Big economic province" designation.So,the research emphasis in this paper is Hebei province.Basing on the theoretical analysis and empirical cases at home and abroad,this paper summarize mechanisms and conditions of import trade influences economic growth at first.Then,this paper analyses Hebei province’s characteristic of import and economic growth.In Chatper4and Chatper5,this paper processes empirical analysis by building metering models.The perspectives of empirical analysis are total import, commodity structure,import trade way and mechanism(based on the effective demand).The model methods which has been adopted in this paper are co-integration analysis,error correction model(ECM),granger causality,VAR model and simultaneous equations model.Finally,there are four suggestions of how to facilitate economic growth through import way are given.