Analytics Of The Correlation And Spread Effect Of The Real Estate

As one of the pillar industries of China’s economy, the real estate industry has great impact on the national economy. With a long industry chain and a large demand for fund, the real estate industry involves the development of many related industries.The real estate industry has played an indispensable role in promoting national and regional economic growth, providing job opportunities and meeting residents’ housing needs. However, the real estate industry also has many problems, such as real estate speculation, imbalance in development of real estate industry and other industries. Therefore, we have to fully understand and timely solve these problems to ensure the healthy and stable development of China’s real estate industry and national economy.Under this economical background, the research for real estate industry is very meaningful. This paper reviews the domestic and foreign existing theories for real estate industry of historical documents. The early theories most focused on real estate cycle theory. This genre rose in the Great Depression, and reached another peak in Japan when its real estate bubble burst. The other part of scholars researched the main factors to real estate prices from the point of viewing the real estate market price, early research is mainly focused on the theory of land rent, then the subsequent gradually developing a option pricing model. In the new century, the focus of research begins to turn to the position and role of the real estate.Based on the research in our country at present relatively focused on qualitative research, the main purpose of this paper is making a quantitative research, in order to make up for the deficiency of the current domestic research.About the method, this paper mainly uses the input and output method, using2007input-output table. Through calculating the direct consumption coefficients, completely consumption coefficients, influence coefficients of real estate, this article gets some important conclusions. In types of related industry, the real estate industry makes different natures in the direction between the roles. It makes us be careful to take real estate industry in regulation and order industrial policies directly. Researching the spread effect, we can see the real estate industry influence coefficient is0.2519, sense degree coefficient is0.2963. Both are lower than average, ranking at41and29. If the economy continues to maintain high speed development, then other industry department for the real estate industry will become very large double sided pressures, the real estate industry will be an obstacle to the national economical rapid development.By using the statistical yearbook, financial yearbook and any other statistical data, this paper creates the2007SAM table, and constructs a simple and practical computable general equilibrium model to simulate the performances of other industries when the real estate industry output rise or fall.This paper studies the interaction between real estate and national economic development theoretically from the prospects of macro-economics, especially the quantitative relationship between real estate and related industries. The study is significant for strengthening the macro-regulation and supervision of the real estate industry. Heavy industry, public utilities, financial industry make the best performance,as light industry, service and other industries change relatively small. Supposing the real estate output fall, the financial industry ranks easing. We think that this phenomenon is coming from the SAM can not accurately reflect the contact between real estate industry and financial industry.Finally, this paper summarizes the view above and proposes some policy suggestions, such as improving the incomes for the low-income residents, changing the current unequal fiscal policy.